Commentary

The Television Bureau of Advertising Forecasts Growth

The Television Bureau of Advertising Forecasts Growth

The Television Bureau of Advertising released its forecast for the television industry's next two years at its Annual Forecast Conference. The forecast shows that Total Spot revenues would grow 1-3% in 2003 over this year's revenues. The full range of numbers for next year, according to TVB:

  • Local Spot +1.0 to +3.0%
  • National Spot 0 to +2.0%
  • TOTAL SPOT +1.0 to +3.0%
  • Network +4.0 to +6.0%
  • Syndication +2.0 to +4.0%
  • Cable +3.0 to +5.0%

    In 2000 TVB began issuing two-year forecasts instead of its traditional one-year forecast. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically since the Olympics switched to a two-year frequency," said TVB President Chris Rohrs. "Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Therefore, we think a two-year forecast is called for."

    TVB's predictions for 2004 were as follows:

  • Local Spot +6.0 to +8.0%
  • National Spot +8.0 to +10.0%
  • TOTAL SPOT +7.0 to +9.0%

    TVB estimates -- derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research -- represent national averages. Individual firms and stations may produce varied results based on a number of factors, including market size, region of the country, and affiliation.

    Find out more here.

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