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RSSIn a number of magazines this past week, I read about the upcoming deluge of digital 3-D movies and the movie industry's overall push towards embracing the three-dimensional world as a means of investment in their future. It seems that everything in the coming weeks will be 3-D. Even a few of this year's Super Bowl spots were in 3-D, though I don't know a single person who had the glasses to watch them.
That got me to thinking, while at OMMA Global, about what the next stage of the Web will be. It leads me to the idea that Web 3.0 might as well be called Web 3-D.
Just about everyone agrees that the next stage of the Web is a transition towards a customizable, distributed Web that no longer relies on mass audience destinations as much as it will rely on technology to tailor the remote experience to the individual user. But is it possible that this next stage will also transition from a two-dimensional experience of flat Web pages to a three-dimensional experience more akin to virtual worlds?
The virtual worlds buzz has died down a bit, but most technologists agree that the future of the Web involves VR (virtual reality) in some manner, and VR implies a three-dimensional experience. If you follow this path of thought, then you can also surmise that the format for display advertising will evolve to a more three-dimensional experience as well. Whether that experience would be analogous to digital billboards with motion, even video, embedded in the virtual landscape or just entry and exit points being converted to digital advertising "portals," either one can be considered very interesting and very alluring to advertisers.
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The issue with the current display formats is that they're flat and can be overlooked, as well as the fact that too many people rely on click-through as a metric for success. In a three-dimensional world, the ads can take on a new life and even morph into truer product placement. I don't mean that your Web experience will be like walking through a virtual world. I simply mean that the browser may be lifted in front of you and pages may reside behind pages in a more tangible, three-dimensional browsing experience rather than the current flat-land way they look and feel.
This topic gets me excited because of the possibilities that arise. How many times have you wished you could create a 3-D chart when presenting to the client that integrated three axes into the discussion? Imagine if the way you surfed the Web could be more similar to the "switch between windows" icon in Windows Vista or the most recent way the Apple Safari browser updates your "most recent pages viewed" format?
Expanding the experience of Web surfing outside of the current browser formats will represent a massive shift in the way we experience the Web; its interconnectedness would be even more easily understood. It's rather inevitable that something like this will happen. The browser space has been stagnant for years, regardless of what Firefox or Chrome bring to the table. They all represent a 2-D Web experience and that is simply not the way I see the future.
Much of the talk at OMMA was about display and how we might see improvements in the coming years, but most of our discussion focused on measurement and interaction. Maybe the solution lies in revisiting the actual Web experience itself? Maybe we need to revise our entire experience with digital media and bring the "pinch and zoom" functionality of the iPhone to the general PC? I know someone smarter than me is working on this right now. I wish they'd hurry up and show it off!
Do you think we're headed in this direction? Comment on the message board and let us know!
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Well, I'm not too young and I do remember. I've been working in real time 3D of all sorts since 1993 and online real time 3D since 1996. I've been though just about every online 3D technology that's came along: VRML, Cosmo Worlds, X3D, Cult 3D, Kaon, Java 3D, and the technologies of Viewpoint Corporation(formerly Metastream, formerly MetaCreations, formerly Fractal Design) most known for their 3D web player called the Viepoint Media Player and famous 3D tools such as Bryce, Poser, and Carrara.
I've logged years of sweat and tears learning all the hard lessons of designing 3D experiences for the web and what flies and what doesn't. I've watched companies go down in flames again and again because they never learn the lesson, Viewpoint being the most recent casualty.
Now I've migrated to Flash 3D -- papervision, away -- (much to my chagrin as it's basically a giant step backwards for real time 3D web graphics) and will shortly be releasing just the type of 3D advertising format for my company this article talks about.
Basically it boils down to this: until there is a massively accepted, transparent 3D interface and visual display for computers to interact with/experience 3D worlds more like we interact with/experience the physical world around us, there won't be a massive popular acceptance of 3D content on the web. The reason being that 1) interfaces for 3D worlds are too complex, and 2)everyday people (i.e. non-gamers) could care less that they are looking at a 3D world through a 2D "window" (the monitor). They are much more likely to relate if the virtual world "wrapped" around them somehow.
If you're talking about online 3D for a shopping experience, or a chat portal, or a financial site, most likely these people have no interest in investing much time learning how to interact with your world. 90% of the complexity of interfaces for 3D applications come from a 2D interface (keyboard, mouse) trying to manipulate a 3D world. Until that barrier is removed, designing everyday online apps in 3D will makes no sense because interacting with the 2D alternatives is much easier. 3D MUST BE AS EASY TO INTERACT WITH AS 2D.
Let's be clear: when I talk about massive acceptance I'm not talking about gaming. It will always have its niche. I'm talking about the kind of massive adoption of 3D content that makes it a cornerstone of web graphics in general -- from games to website designs to advertisements. I mean the kind of adoption that would make a social site like Facebook want to use it or a banking site, or a website like ESPN.
That interface hardware is missing -- that simple, intuitive, no brainer hardware that would make a woman want to browse her favorite store's inventory in 3D, for example(how many times have we heard about online 3D virtual stores?). Or make a stock trader want to paruse through market data in a 3D space, or make a sports fan want to watch a game in a virtual stadium. Until that hardware has arrived, 3D graphics won't yet be a staple of web graphics. Until it does, I'm afraid it's just us 3D evangelists and our passion and 2D will always be easier to interact with.
Maybe simple VR glasses and gloves could solve this problem. But someone has to get them out there in everyone's hands. And they have to be as light-weight and "stylish" as an iPhone (to use a designer example everyone is familiar with).
So don't repeat the mistakes of the past. Keep this in mind when you choose to do something in 3D on the web. Until then, I'm afraid 3D online will remain an indulgence. Trust me, no one hopes I'm wrong more than me! :-)
Please contact me if anyone would like to see a demo!
best,
Jay
Some brands are already exploring this technology. Looks super cool but I would really like to know how it's being tracked and measured.
It also tells us that one day we'll have flying cars, and that everyone will communicate via videophones. At least for the latter, the technology has been there for decades now...but few use it (or even want to).
So why are these devices such a common part of the entertainment world? Because film and TV is a *visual* medium (and through imagination, so are books in a way), and thus they must find ways to make the mundane a little more flashy for the audience.
Phone calls don't really lend themselves well to film, but videophones do. The 'regular' internet doesn't look so good on camera, but Minority Report 3D interfaces and Matrix-like virtual worlds do.
I think they'll exist where appropriate, such as places like World of Warcraft. But day to day, the web is a largely passive experience, often used in conjunction with other things (like surfing on the couch while watching TV, or "multitasking" with Facebook while at work).
The growth of the iPhone and other mobile browsing, netbooks, Kindle, Twitter, etc tell me that resource-intensive whiz-bang user experiences that demand a lot of our attention might not be the future. We simply don't have the time or energy.
Simple apps and devices that effortlessly ride alongside and improve our real-life experiences, rather than complex attention-grabbing apps that take us out of the real world, are where I see things going.
And to your point about embedded advertising within 3D virtual worlds, we've just done it. We recently developed a website for the new CTV/NBC series 'The Listener' that takes a photo-real 3D public square in Toronto, and replaced all the signage in that environment with ad-served billboards, available to any of the broadcaster's advertising partners. This site will be live in June 2009 at thelistenertv.com