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RSSWhile many can argue about how fast we will see Internet Protocol-driven TV sets at scale, we will certainly see Internet-like measurement and campaign management impact the TV advertising market very, very soon.
Some areas of TV advertising will be impacted sooner than others. The "tune-in" business, where network and program marketers deploy "on-air" promos to build audiences for their shows, is already being impacted. In this world, viewing is "buying" and set-top-box data can already identify which viewers out of millions and millions saw promos and which of those viewers actually tuned-in to the promoted show hours, days or weeks later. The value of using this anonymous "return path" data from set-top boxes to better schedule "on-air" promos is already becoming self-evident. Here are two very straightforward examples that my scientists have uncovered recently:
Some TV viewers are much more responsive to "on-air" promos than others. We analyzed the "responsiveness" (did the recipients of the promos actually watch the promoted show) to "on-air" promotions by viewers that have watched just one episode of a program, but were very attentive to it (they watched at least one-half of it). When presented promos for episodes in the future, they were three times more likely to watch the show than similar viewers that did not see a promo. Yes. 3X.
Swapping over-saturated promos between sister channels can dramatically improve their effectiveness. As all us who watch television know, the same viewers see the same promos for the same shows way too many times. That is because networks use their own network inventory to promote their own shows, but only rarely promote their shows on other channels. Set-top -box data reveals that scientifically swapping "on-air" promos past points of saturation between two or more networks improves their effectiveness in actually driving viewership -- from two to 17 times. Yes. 2X to 17X.
What does this mean? It means that data is going to begin changing the way some television advertising is purchased or managed -- finally -- and "tune-in" is quite likely to be first in line. It certainly won't happen overnight, but the multiples involved are clearly too great to be ignored. 2% improvements won't move markets, but 20% or 2X improvements will. This is going to have a lot of impact in TV measurements, metrics, processes and, very likely, business models. It will certainly be disruptive to many of the incumbents -- and will also present many of them with extraordinary new opportunities -- but it will certainly be crazy getting there. What do you think?
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The movie trailer world is a bit different but could apply. Everyone tries to get their movie trailer placed in front of the biggest/best-suited movies possible. The studio that made the movie gets the final 2 slots before the feature begins... Maybe there needs to be an equation that would allow for this in television. Otherwise stubborn old ways will continue.
It requires more cross-network partnership, which is difficult for competitors to come to grips with, and arguably takes away audience. Unless of course its a Turner or ESPN, or NBCU, that can cross advertise its own networks. If some of that already takes place today, how effective is the cross advertising? What do the metrics show?