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RSSCopyright and user-generated content. First of all, Google will finalize the deal and will put to rest two of the larger issues surrounding the potential monetization of YouTube: copyright and user-generated content. Google will surely have to go to court to defend YouTube, but there's no doubt in my mind that legal precedent will be set and we will see the establishment of a compensation model for the redistribution of video content through the Internet. YouTube's growth is dependent on this, as is every other site looking to utilize video, so it's impossible that this will drag out beyond the coming year. In addition, as I mentioned last week, Google's technology will be applied to UGC and we'll find ways to ensure brands are being shepherded through this type of content. All of the sites allowing users to upload video content and looking to run ads alongside them will be able to sell these ads at a premium, especially for in-stream, above where they are currently.
Archive television catalogues will go online with burn-to-order biz models. AOL's In2TV has not picked up the steam I anticipated as quickly as I would have guessed, but I believe the other studios will start to follow suit while the general consumer becomes more aware this content is now available online. I believe the major networks (ABC, NBC, CBS, Fox) will begin to launch their catalogues online and may even move to "burn-to-order" business models where consumers will be able to create their very own compilations of their favorite classic TV shows and burn them to DVDs. This model has worked in the past with music, and now that iTunes is making it easier and easier to sell this type of content, I anticipate the studios will look to offer their own solutions. It's only a matter of time before I can burn my favorite episodes of "Nash Bridges"--which will be great news, since I can't find them on TV anymore and I know they aren't available on DVD.
Social networks will embrace the long tail. The success of MySpace and Facebook shows us the need for social networking online, but the broad nature of these networks also opens them up to criticism. All the issues surrounding MySpace at the beginning of the year, including parents' concern for their children in that environment, may or may not have been warranted. But I think the backlash will be that social networks will segment down to smaller sub-segments of the audience and follow the path the long tail is pointing toward. I think we may see age groups focused in specific networks, or behavioral mindsets focused on these groups. My feeling is that the "everything to everyone" feel of the current social network model will go away, and as a result advertisers will have more targeted groups to speak with; these networks will be able to charge a premium to be there. Of course this opens up the opportunity for my next prediction....
Personal start pages will rise in importance again (with behavioral targeting). As our tastes continue to segment further, we will look to find a single site where we can start our day online, one that aggregates the passwords and links to all of our favorite sites and networks. The proverbial "digital dashboard" which we've spoken of for many years, gathered together by Yahoo, Google and some of the other portals, will likely become important again. Sites like Digg allow us to see what's new and where to go, but they don't help us aggregate our personal Internet. As I want to keep track of my news sources, my entertainment sources, my social networks and all the other places I like to visit, these sites become extremely important once again. These personal pages will likely be created by someone with a strong understanding of behavioral targeting--because if this is where I always start my day, they can keep track of where I go and how, to personalize the Web for me. As of last week, we achieved 100 million sites online, making the Internet too big for anyone to surf all on their own. They need help in making the Internet digestible, and I think this is the next re-refresh trend we might see.
There are certainly many other things to pay attention to in the coming year. Last week I mentioned we will see an increase in original video programming online. I also think local search has yet to come into its own. And I foresee ad network business models will continue to consolidate, These are the typical predictions you might expect, so I decided to focus on the ones I found to be slightly more interesting. Do you think I'm off or may have missed anything? Share with the rest of the readers what you think might happen!
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I think you are right and invested in a company who believes this also, www.inozo.com. Guess we will see if we are both right.
Mike
Sean Doherty Odyssey Telecorp Capital doherty@odysseytel.com
Many of the stories/blogs I have read lately speak about free sites like facebook either having to cower to free users demands to keep traffic up or risk losing their audience and all the ad revenues that go along with it.
This modis operandi is a recipe for disaster in my opinion and I would caution that ultimately all Internet businesses will receive an undeserved black eye when businesses with poorly conceived business models that don't work go bust. Actuality there are several business models that work fine and most do not include providing free content in some cases copyrighted content on free sites to free surfers.
If we are not careful and continue to engage in these ill conceived and very high risk ventures the Internet could be headed for another bust in 2007 - 2008.
Brad
I think over time Google will use YouTube as the amateur and semipro platform and use Google Video as the semipro and media company platform, it's already integrated into Google's search and has a payment system embedded.
Here are some other trends for 2007. http://www.watchmojo.com/web/blog/?p=530