An NBC spokeswoman confirmed what has been rumored for some time--that NBC is strongly considering a third spinoff of the venerable morning show. A decision is expected early next year.

For years, NBC stations--especially NBC-owned stations--haven't been able to compete with ABC stations in the early-morning time periods via strong syndication programming. That's why "Today" launched a second show in the 9 a.m. hour in October 2000. A third "Today" show would make those shows even move competitive, according to program analysts.

"Trust me; if NBC stations were running "[Live with] Regis & Kelly," they wouldn't be needing a fourth hour of "The Today Show," says Bill Carroll, vice president and director of programming for Katz Communications. "NBC [stations] haven't been successful in buying syndication in daytime."

NBC will need to make a decision by the time the National Association of Television Program Executives convention meets in Las Vegas in mid-January. That's when stations typically make their decisions on what syndication programming will be added to fall schedules.

In that regard, Carroll says NBC will have another decision to make--whether to continue with its hour-long afternoon soap opera "Passions." Odds are that if NBC adds a fourth hour of "The Today Show," it will sacrifice "Passions."

"The net will be trading 10 in the morning for two in the afternoon," says Carroll. In addition, Carroll says, look for NBC to possibly move "Martha" to 11 a.m. from its current 10 a.m. time slot.

The third hour of "The Today Show," the 9 a.m. to 10 a.m. hour, has been moderately successful--but not on the same level of the regular 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. slot.

Last season, "Today 2" posted a Nielsen household 3.3 rating/12 share, with a 1.5 rating among women 18-49 and 1.9 rating for women 25-54. The original show--the 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. two-hour program--earned a Nielsen household 4.7 rating/16 share, with a 2.6 rating among women 18-49 and a 3.2 among women 25-54.

For national advertisers, the third hour of "Today" has been a good alternative to standard syndication shows.

"It's much cheaper than "The Today Show," says Gary Carr, senior vice president of national broadcast for TargetCast TCM. "A lot cheaper. It's closer to daytime prices. You buy "The Today Show" to get upscale viewers. But after 9 a.m., those viewers change."

Stations register some concern over the possibility of adding an additional hour of "Today." It may mean losing valuable local ad inventory. Morning syndicated shows can give stations as much as 12 minutes of local advertising per hour, versus four minutes to five minutes they can get from running a third hour of "Today."

"If NBC goes ahead, will it sweeten the deal [with more local commercials]?" asks Carr.

"Stations already know what the show might do," says Carroll, of the proposed fourth "Today Show" hour. "It's low risk. So far, the third hour has not negatively impacted the 7 a.m. to 9 a.m. mothership."

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