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Just An Online Minute... AOL Merger Speculation
by Wendy Davis, Friday, December 22, 2006, 3:15 PM

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In August, AOL decided to stop charging broadband users for e-mail addresses, software and other long-time premium services, in hopes of stemming the tide of defectors.

As of today, it looks like the effort was successful. For the first time in four years, AOL now has more users than it did one year ago, according to a Reuters report. "The numbers we've been tracking show that total paid and free memberships are on track to exceed the paid memberships we had recorded last year at this time," AOL chief executive Randy Falco wrote in a note to employees, Reuters reports.

While the increase in users goes a long way toward vindicating the company's decisions to stop charging approximately 6 million broadband users $15 a month, the company's work clearly isn't done yet. AOL currently is in a state of flux, as it adjusts to new management--Falco and COO Ron Grant--as well as the loss of key executives, including Jim Bankoff, who spearheaded the free broadcast of Live 8 and the launch of celebrity gossip site TMZ.com.

Additionally, speculation is mounting that AOL might merge with either Yahoo or MSN. Merrill Lynch this morning released a report stating that several trends--including Google's continued growth in search at the expense of Yahoo and MSN--could spur a major industry consolidation.

Merrill Lynch pegs a Yahoo-AOL merger as the most likely scenario, but also says that a Microsoft-AOL merger and Microsoft-Yahoo deal make sense.

But the report also predicts that, if AOL is going to merge, MSN or Yahoo are among the only options. Why? The merger with Time Warner-- frequently described as "disastrous"--likely will deter other traditional media companies from seeking to acquire AOL. "Importantly, we do not believe that other traditional media companies would be interested in AOL," states the report. "[T]he last combination of AOL with a major media company is one of the poorest mergers in history."

1 person recommends this article. 

2 comments on "Just An Online Minute... AOL Merger Speculation "

  1. Harl Fine from self
    commented on: December 26, 2006 at 4:40 PM
    Murdoch did not seem to be worried about acquiring MySpace, cheaply. And that acquistion has been successful. Murdoch might do wonders for the value of AOL's under-valued assets; but he'd never pay Parson's price, I'd wager.

    To keep MS or Y! from getting AOL, would Google part with 10% or more of its equity? Perhaps, imo. That may be Parson's best play.

    Would Y! core holders ever sell themselves to Balmer&Gates?, ...not so likely, ....unless their market value continues to slide,... peanut butter reforms or no. Ownership might shift and concentrate, just enough....

  2. Ari Kaufman from Advertising Online, Reactionary with Insight
    commented on: December 23, 2006 at 2:33 PM
    AOLGetting their act together has been a long time coming. But a urn around in subscriber voulume is nly one step in making this rig a viable taaget for any suitor. They have to prove that the primary revenue driver can be supported by advertising. MSN doesn't make the most sense wheb you dig in as a merger (or would market cap make this an acquisition really?) after the release of Ad Center and their strategy to leverage all of the knowledge the have on their users. AOL would have to be ale to offer similar data for the user base to be relevant. Yahoo on the other hand is a straw grasp. They have not shown any progress at develping communities and are poor with the acquisitions they have made recently in terms integration. Would they do better than TW? Maybe tis is too soon

    Reactionary with Insight. www.arikaufman.com

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