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HOME • MANAGE SUBSCRIPTIONS • MEDIA KIT
Google's Shaky Investments
by Mark Simon, Monday, July 23, 2007, 11:45 AM

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Even after a 7% stock drop, Google still looks healthy. Q2 didn't meet investor hopes, but Google still managed to grow a tremendous 58% over last year -- and analysts predict Google will take in roughly 30% of U.S. online ad revenue by year's end. In the words of Cantor Fitzgerald's Derek Brown: "It is hard to look at [Google's]... revenue growth and have conviction that they are hitting a wall."

But there's still cause for concern. By its own admission, Google is making less net revenue because it's spending more. But when you follow Google's spending patterns, you see that more than just putting money into investments, the company is putting money into things it may not understand. This is a bad habit for the growing giant to settle into, and it's why Google may need to think differently as it matures into a new kind of leader in the corporate landscape.

Spending on Employees

On last week's earnings call, to explain Google's 85% year-over-year rise in Q2 operating expenses, CEO Eric Schmidt pointed to Google's huge hiring growth-Google had pulled in 1,500 new workers by June. Explaining why overspending on new employees was OK, Schimdt added: "The kind of people we brought in are so good, we are happy we did this."

Schmidt may be right to be happy. The right talent costs money, and over the long term, a good hire will pay for itself. But at the same time, it's impossible to know how new employees will work out, or where they'll fit in a growing organization. Which is why "exceeding the head count" could either be a brilliant move or a poor investment.

Either way, overspending on employees shows Google's readiness to gamble on what looks to be a good opportunity. By itself, of course, hiring people -- even many people -- doesn't look like the makings of a spending spree. But the hiring surge needs to be viewed in the context of Google's acquisitions.

Spending on Acquisitions

When considering Google acquisitions, YouTube is an instructive case. Google purchased YouTube for $1.6B, with the plan to turn the video giant's eyeball share into cash. Google would just need to provide the right ad model.

But more than half a year later, that ad model still seems far away. Omid Kordestani, Google's senior vice president of global sales, said on last week's earnings call that Google "still needs to prove [YouTube] to advertisers and publishers before we scale it," and that the Google team was on the case. How Google plans to "prove" YouTube was left unanswered. Meanwhile, YouTube has brought Google a $1B lawsuit from Viacom.

The problems from YouTube are important to keep in mind as 2007 turns into a bumper year for Google acquisitions. While Google made nine major acquisitions in 2006, Google has already acquired 11 companies in 2007 -- and it's only July. Google is further awaiting approval on the $3.1B DoubleClick deal, and a $625M deal to buy Postini.

Between over-hiring and acquiring heavily, Google is clearly comfortable with paying high sums to leap into uncharted waters. But YouTube raises real questions as to how well Google understands a new territory before it buys into it.

Spending Away Trust

Much has been said about how Google may be risking losing users' trust, butit's a point worth returning to here. Google is masterful at the business of search--both in terms of delivering quality results, and in monetizing search queries. But Google is hardly the only search engine around, or even the only excellent one. And so Google hasn't won search on technical ability alone. Much of Google's huge market share comes down to branding: People love the quirky, helpful upstart with the corporate mantra of "Don't be Evil."

But that image is in jeopardy as Google moves up in the corporate oligarchy. Privacy advocates are concerned over Google's use of information. The FTC wonders if GoogleClick will become an unfair monopoly. Copyright holders fear Google's liberal interpretations of intellectual property laws. Even Congress is getting concerned.

Google has been taking bold moves, and has been banking on the public goodwill to stand by it. If Google loses its lovable image, its users could easily defect. Again, it looks like Google has charted out new territory without considering all the costs---and it could get hurt.

Does Google know what it's doing? Or is it breathless on newfound power, buying first and facing the consequences later? We'll have to wait and see. Either way, Google might do well to reassess its spending approach for Q3.

6 comments on "Google's Shaky Investments"

  1. Oseans J from Los Oseans
    commented on: July 24, 2007 at 4:51 AM
    Google absolutely knows what it is doing.

    They are the number 1 search engine. They are currently focus on increasing the usability over the internet.

    Google is in a decisive step in a company: growing stage. They want to heat a peak. The key is that no one can forecast where the peak is and when the next stage (development and consolidation) will start.

    Google is a giant and is brilliant. They are the number one. Does it like? Well, it makes them not be very popular at the moment. Envy?

  2. Jeff Dickey from SeeSaw Networks
    commented on: July 24, 2007 at 12:34 AM
    Google has clearly embraced the reality of the eventual digitization of most, if not all media. This media shift is driven by demographics and technology which, in turn, are relentlessly driving changes in how media is consumed and the very nature of what constitutes media. For thousands of years, information has been entirely controlled by institutions, including government, religion, the educational estabishment and the media. With the advent of the Internet, all of this control has been taken away - ceding control to the user. Google's moves and eventual success at weaving its acquisitions into a cohesive environment, will accelerate these trends and put increasing greater pressure on the traditional media to change quickly or be left behind. And,I suspect, by the time most traditional media develop a game plan Google will have already moved to the next level.

  3. Clifford Scott from The Scott Group
    commented on: July 23, 2007 at 4:21 PM
    Hey Mark. Don't forget that Google did not pay cash for YouTube, but instead, paid YouTube with $1.65B worth of its stock. Within a week, Google's stock increased such that its market-cap had increased 5 times what it had paid for YouTube. And that was well-before GOOG ever hit 500! From my perspective, this was a pretty damn good investment for Google shareholders.

  4. Emmett Childress, Jr. from 2010 advertising
    commented on: July 23, 2007 at 1:03 PM
    I'm with Moses on this one. Google bought YouTube, a leader in online video, for literally nothing in relative terms. You need to print this article as are minder of how wrong you were. YouTube will be the market leader in terms of video deliver via cellphones...m.youtube.com. As far as over hiring you must be kidding. The people Google hires are subject matter experts. Your firm should take a few notes from these guys. These people come in off the street knowing more about what they do than anyone trained by most other competitors. Google is innovative and will continue to dominate its space by making search easier.

  5. Moses Kagan from Aurora Borealis
    commented on: July 23, 2007 at 12:09 PM
    Google paid $1.6b for Youtube, which equates to exchanging just 1% of its market capitalization for the leader in internet video, one of the fastest growing parts of the internet. Viewed from this perspective, the acquisition was incredibly cheap.

    See my blog, www.moseskagan.com for more on Google's Youtube strategy.

  6. David Burdon from Simply Clicks
    commented on: July 23, 2007 at 12:08 PM
    Mark,

    good article. Two key issues:

    1. Earnings dilution. 2. Strategic consumption.

    On earnings dilution Google's revenue is growing strong enough in gross terms to be able to absorb a number of acquisitions. But not all of the scale of YouTube or DoubleClick.

    On the strategic consumption side Google is getting further from what it knows best - search - and where it is World Champion. The fact that its recruiting people at faster rate than its growing suggests that it may take time to digest all the new acquisitions.

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Do you have strong opinions and inside knowledge about the topic of this article -- and do you want to share your insights, observations and points of view regularly with the readers of MediaPost? To be considered as a MediaPost contributing writer, please send pertinent info about your credentials, plus several column ideas and one example of your writing on the topic, to pfine@mediapost.com. Please see our editorial guidelines here first.

MARK SIMON
  • Mark Simon is vice president of industry relations at Didit, an agency for search engine marketing and auctioned media management based in New York. You can reach Mark at msimon@didit.com.


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