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RSSFirst, I don't think that I am going to use the newspaper metaphor for describing what consumers will receive in 2020. By then, I very much doubt that folks in major metropolitan markets in the U.S. will wake up daily to the sound of print newspapers hitting their doorstep. The metro newspaper as we know it will not exist in large markets, and will probably not exist in the same way in many smaller markets as well. However, I do believe that there will be many large and very robust local news, information and advertising media products; probably, in fact, many, many more of them than we have today, particularly in large metro markets.
Second, I think that certain realities will govern these new products -- our new newspapers of the future. Here are some of my "realities" for 2020:
- All media will be digital. There may still be some analog components in the supply chains of media companies, but analog will be a very small part of the business. We have heard for years that the advent of computers would mean a paperless office -- which never happened, because computers gave us more stuff to print out and read. Still, I do believe that we will have virtually no paper-based media products in 2020. There have been great advances in the development of digital, paper-like materials that are readable and can connect to digital networks; most important, I believe that the eco-consciousness that we are beginning to see is here to stay. We won't have paper because it is a very expensive and wasteful way to deliver news and information.
- Consumer attention will continue to fragment. Our news and information products won't be large, comprehensive and "averaged" for mass consumption as they are today in a newspaper. Consumers will get best-of-breed information services from many different providers.
- There will be many, many different digital media devices. Many of these devices will be portable; all will be networked; some will support lean-forward usage while others support lean-back usage. Many will be ambient and stay in the background most of the time. They will also be open, so distribution lock-in won't be an option for information and entertainment providers. And most devices will permit users to communicate and create, not just consume.
- Media brands will matter -- but old brands will matter less. Consider how fast Yahoo and Google were able to build well-known, trusted brands.
- News and information applications and services will be more important than underlying data and news. Deditit synthesizing, analyzing news and information and advertising is what will attract and retain consumers. Sending someone to a city council meeting for three hours to file a four-paragraph recitation of events will be worthless in 2020. Consumers and competition will demand much, much more, and in fact will be able to virtually attend such a meeting themselves.
- Competition will be fierce, particularly in large metro markers. In a world where digital distribution is low to start and cheap to expand, the barriers to entry that have benefited newspapers for many decades won't exist in 2020. The competition in the local news, information and advertising business will be fierce.
- There will be lots of winners. Consumers will be the big winners. They will get more, better, more diverse and much more accurate news, information and advertising than they receive today. Advertisers will also win. They will pay much less to reach their target consumers, with more relevant messages and offers than they can provide through today's analog media channels.
- Newspaper companies are very likely not to be winners. The characteristics of the companies that will win in 2020 are very different than the characteristics of newspaper companies today.
What do you think?
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This is a great time for newspapers to be the leader in owning their market. Unfortunately from the converations I am having with my peers, few are trying as they are focused on saving the current cash cow.
There have been several comments about getting news from a lot of other sources and throwing the newspaper away. Keep in mind, much of the news that you get from other sources is created by newspapers around the nation. It would be interesting to see what would happen if every newspaper took down their web site and didn't submit anything to Associated Press or other news organizations. What kind of "news" would be on the web????
Daily newspapers have the opportunity to transfer their brand to the internet at this time. What they do now will drive usership and brand with a younger generation that is still somewhat (albeit shrinking) familiar with news-on-paper products and the local brand name of the newspaper.
Local news and information WILL matter. Furthermore, local advertising will matter. People will still need to know what's going on in their communities. Local websites can support that and no one has really taken the lead in the internet space on total localization.
The papers that get this piece right -- by transforming themselves into local online portals -- will not only survive, but thrive.
Will the NY Times continue to be present by 2020? Yes, if it continues to fill the need of native NYers. But I think it will have to work awfully hard to stay relevant on the national and global news scene. Global and national news is already widely available. Two things make the Times relevant in New York: the localization of news and resources such as its real estate and jobs classifieds and its analysis and specialized political twist of news that appeals to a certain portion of the local population.
Localization is the key to remaining relevant by city and state. Analysis, presentation and entertainment will also support that and lend a national/global uniqueness to each brand.
A company such as Gannett, with daily newspapers in suburban areas outside major markets, is perfectly positioned to take advantage of this situation. The strength of the Gannett New Services and its ability to gather and distribute local and national content among its news bureaus, works very well in the internet age. Their positions in the television and outdoor advertising business also overlaps nicely.
Dave, I think you are completely right on with the local advertising. Despite the world becoming smaller and smaller on a global level, it's the local advertising that drives people into the the stores in their community, no matter what size the stores may be or where else they are located.
Keep up the great writing.....
sy pulp, etcbut had
My husband recently brought home the Charleston metro paper and asked me to read about the tragic fire that claimed the lives of 9 local Firefighters. Not only did I already know about it and made calls of condolences to friends who lost friends...I already had blogged about it, interviewed a local fire department and put the story on one of my websites...and Clipmarked the story for others to read about.
The physical newspaper only served to waste a little money (that could have gone towards, say, fuel) and smudge up my hands as I threw it in the trash can. It is worthless to me. (But, that's just me).
I am no longer content reading what someone doles out to me in the newspaper. Online, however, I can instantly research sources of information, challenge an opinion, express another view...or get the other side of an issue.
I do believe that we will have VIRTUALLY no paper-based media products in 2020. I also agree with Pam McNeely, above, as it may be sooner than we think.
(Personally, I haven't even used the yellow pages in seven years. I know this because the 2000 big book remains under one of my computer monitors...holding it up higher.)
For viewers with money today who are 30 and under, news isn't associated with any one news format or station. News is what they get via electronic alerts, their social networks, and RSS.
Terrific article. I'd be afraid to predict what a major daily will look like in three years, let alone in 2020. However, I feel fairly confident about a few things regarding the future of commercial news. 1. Newspapers are in trouble because the business model is falling apart. TV is is big fat trouble because they don't even know they are in trouble. 2. As a journalist with a specialty (higher education) I may stand to gain. I believe a journalists with an expertise will have the ability to build his/her own brand. If I cover higher ed better than the NY Times, why wouldn't people want what I have. Of course, that could be problematic because most journalists know nothing about the business of journalism. That why we write stories for newspapers instead of running he business side of the house. 3. There will be a place for a dominant media source in a metro market. A digital portal that does video, audio, text, photos, etc. better than anyone else and getting there first will make a difference because brands do make a difference. Newspapers are in the best position to stake that claim right now.
Each news organization will develop its own brand and trademark coverage. And based on their likes and dislikes, users will be drawn to their favorite.