According to a new white paper by Winterberry Group, with rising postage rates and growing marketer preference for low-cost digital communications, total U.S. direct mail spending declined 3.0% in 2008, and was accompanied by an even more significant cutback in mail volume. Direct Mail Spending & Year-over-Year Spending Growth YearSpending (billion $) % Change (from previous year) 2004 $48.3 6% 2005 $51.7 7.0 2006 $55.6 7.5 2007 $58.4 5.0 2008 $56.7 -3 2009E $51.8 -9.1 Source: Winterberry Group/DMA/Others, February 2009 According to the report, a rapid drop-off in financial services mail activity (brought on by the crisis in the banking and mortgage sectors) fueled the overall decline in mail spending, the channel's first in a recorded history that began in 1945. Further decay in mail activity is expected to continue through the course of the recession, at which point the direct mail channel will likely emerge as a medium used more for precise targeting than "saturation mailing" as it has been over the last decade. Though notoriously difficult to measure, statistical models, anecdotal evidence and raw data all tell the story of a very serious decline, says the report. According to the research firm Mintel Comperemedia, mail volumes dropped over 12% in 2008 across the nine verticals tracked. The U.S. Postal Service reported that Standard Mail volumes fell off by 4.5% on a full-year basis (about 9 billion pieces). The numbers for the fourth quarter were even more dire: Standard volumes were off 6.1% from 2007 levels, or about 1.5 billion total pieces. Percentage Change in Direct Mail Volumes by Vertical Category (2008 vs. 2007) Category% Change Telecommunications 9.6% Insurance 4.6 Banking (1.3) Investments (4.2) Travel/Leisure (4.7) Automotive (9.4) Technology (16.6) Credit Cards (21.8) Mortgage & Loans (38.8) Total across tracked verticals (12.1)Source: Mintel Comperemedia The report concludes: "A wide variety of new mail applications will continue to emerge. Based largely on deep data and technology underpinnings-and structured to take advantage of direct mail's unique ability to enable customer acquisition and integrate with other media... The events of the past 18 months have moved them to the forefront... " The white paper outlines six trends that took hold in 2008 and another three that are expected to continue defining the role of direct mail in 2009. Expected 2009 trends include: