Carat Revises Ad Outlook. Calls For 9.8% Drop In U.S., 5.8% In Global Ad Spending

Aegis Group's Carat unit this morning released new forecasts for global ad spending in 2009 and 2010, the first from the agency since the economy began to unravel. Carat's new prediction calls for U.S. ad spending to decline 9.8% in 2009, and rise 0.1% in 2010. Worldwide ad spending is projected to decline 5.8% in 2009, and rise 0.7% in 2010, the agency said.

In fact, Carat's 2009 global outlook projects declines for every major advertising market with the exception of China, which is projected to grow 4.6% this year, and 7.2% in 2010.

"These forecasts represent widespread adoption of a much more cautious approach to spending in the face of widespread economic uncertainty. Of course, these predictions themselves are just that: our best guess at this point in time, in a market we know to be uncertain," Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlmann stated, adding, "Worldwide, we estimate that 2009's advertising spend will contract -5.8%. China aside, no major market will see growth this year. But we are seeing some signs for optimism in some countries in 2010. We believe that the U.K., parts of Europe and Asia will start to stabilize."

advertisement

advertisement

Buhlmann said the new outlook reflects a shift among marketers toward "proven and accountable communications," and said that trend was one of the strong reasons for the "relative resilience we are seeing in TV and online."

 

Ad Spending Growth By Region

 

2008

2009

GLOBAL

1.0 (4.9)

-5.8 (4.8)

USA

-1.8 (2.1)

-9.8 (3.1)

Canada

2.0 (6.1)

-2.5 (7.2)

WESTERN EUROPE

-2.9 (2.2)

-6.6 (2.3)

UK

-5.5 (2.5)

-7.1 (2.2)

Germany

0.0 (0.3)

-2.2 (0.5)

France

-2.6 (1.7)

-5.0 (2.4)

Italy

-1.9 (2.8)

-6.5 (2.4)

Spain

-12.7 (-2.3)

-16.5 (-0.8)

Nordics

-0.2 (4.3)

-5.6 (3.1)

Central/Eastern Europe

12.2 (16.8)

-8.2 (15.2)

Russia

16.6 (22.8)

-8.6 (19.5)

ASIA PACIFIC

5.0 (8.2)

-0.8 (5.7)

Japan

-4.2 (1.5)

-5.5 (0.5)

China

18.9 (18.2)

4.6 (10.9)

Australia

4.2 (4.2)

-1.9 (3.6)

 

Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Aug 2008

 

3 comments about "Carat Revises Ad Outlook. Calls For 9.8% Drop In U.S., 5.8% In Global Ad Spending".
Check to receive email when comments are posted.
  1. Joe Fredericks, March 25, 2009 at 10:14 a.m.

    Next time, I'd like to know what their old predictions were so I can see how Carat thinking has changed with these new estimates. Thanks.

  2. Ana Tavares from GMC, March 25, 2009 at 11:27 a.m.

    Even with this predictions, their estimates seem very optimistic... Anyway, is there any split by media? How will Tv, Newspapers, Magazines, radio and Internet grow / decline?

  3. Joe Kutchera, March 26, 2009 at 11:11 a.m.

    Where is Latin America? Brazil and even some of the Spanish-speaking countries may have positive growth this year.

Next story loading loading..