In fact, Carat's 2009 global outlook projects declines for every major advertising market with the exception of China, which is projected to grow 4.6% this year, and 7.2% in 2010.
"These forecasts represent widespread adoption of a much more cautious approach to spending in the face of widespread economic uncertainty. Of course, these predictions themselves are just that: our best guess at this point in time, in a market we know to be uncertain," Aegis Media CEO Jerry Buhlmann stated, adding, "Worldwide, we estimate that 2009's advertising spend will contract -5.8%. China aside, no major market will see growth this year. But we are seeing some signs for optimism in some countries in 2010. We believe that the U.K., parts of Europe and Asia will start to stabilize."
advertisement
advertisement
Buhlmann said the new outlook reflects a shift among marketers toward "proven and accountable communications," and said that trend was one of the strong reasons for the "relative resilience we are seeing in TV and online."
Ad Spending Growth By Region | |||
| 2008 | 2009 | |
GLOBAL | 1.0 (4.9) | -5.8 (4.8) | |
USA | -1.8 (2.1) | -9.8 (3.1) | |
Canada | 2.0 (6.1) | -2.5 (7.2) | |
WESTERN EUROPE | -2.9 (2.2) | -6.6 (2.3) | |
UK | -5.5 (2.5) | -7.1 (2.2) | |
Germany | 0.0 (0.3) | -2.2 (0.5) | |
France | -2.6 (1.7) | -5.0 (2.4) | |
Italy | -1.9 (2.8) | -6.5 (2.4) | |
Spain | -12.7 (-2.3) | -16.5 (-0.8) | |
Nordics | -0.2 (4.3) | -5.6 (3.1) | |
Central/Eastern Europe | 12.2 (16.8) | -8.2 (15.2) | |
Russia | 16.6 (22.8) | -8.6 (19.5) | |
ASIA PACIFIC | 5.0 (8.2) | -0.8 (5.7) | |
Japan | -4.2 (1.5) | -5.5 (0.5) | |
China | 18.9 (18.2) | 4.6 (10.9) | |
Australia | 4.2 (4.2) | -1.9 (3.6) | |
| Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts from Aug 2008 |
Next time, I'd like to know what their old predictions were so I can see how Carat thinking has changed with these new estimates. Thanks.
Even with this predictions, their estimates seem very optimistic... Anyway, is there any split by media? How will Tv, Newspapers, Magazines, radio and Internet grow / decline?
Where is Latin America? Brazil and even some of the Spanish-speaking countries may have positive growth this year.