• by Karl Greenberg , July 6, 2009

These are weird times for anyone who has watched the auto industry for, say, the last decade. The last few months have been something like culture shock for those who have come to accept it as natural law that the Japanese automakers would indomitably wear away Big Three market share as surely as the rising tide dissolves even the largest sand castle.

Year after year, post-millennium auto scribes could cut and paste the following sentence into each month's sales story: "Sales are down at the Big Three while import brands make big gains in cars and crossovers." And during several months last year, Toyota outsold Ford in the U.S.

But June is the third month in a row in which Ford has sold more vehicles in the U.S. than Toyota, which is taking a big sales hit as the economy saps consumers' will to spend. Last month, Ford only posted an 11% decline to 148,153. Toyota posted a 34.6% decline to 131,654 vehicles. Except for Subaru, whose sales were up last month 3%, and for which June was its best month, Ford's comparative sales beat all other brands.

Honda's sales were off over 32%; Nissan's sales were down 23.1% versus the month last year. Hyundai Motor sales were down 24% versus the month last year. Chrysler's sales fell 42% in June versus June 2008, and General Motors posted a 33.6% decline versus June last year.

Jessica Caldwell, analyst with Edmunds.com, says Toyota is hurting for a number of reasons, including the fact that the coastal import gold mine is turning to lead, especially with California's economy on IOU support.

"California and the coastal areas have suffered in the economy," she says. "But Ford has also been coming out with guns blazing in recent months, promoting their products with positive messages, saying 'we have new technology, hybrids, the new Taurus, Mustang, the Fusion sedan gets the best fuel economy of any mid-size sedan in American.' In an industry in which there is more bad news every day -- with GM and Chrysler dealing with bankruptcy -- they are focusing on product messaging."

But the domestics are still outspending import brands on hood cash. Edmunds.com, in fact, says that incentives have never been higher, although the trend may reverse this year because automakers -- especially the domestics -- are making huge production cuts. The firm pegs auto incentive last month at $2,930 -- down $22 from May, but up 20% from the month last year. The firm says combined incentive spend for Ford, GM and Chrysler averaged $3,821, up about $95 from May; European brands spent $3,238, down $448; Japanese brands decreased spend $169 last month to $1,729; and Korean makes increased spend by $252 to $3,083 last month versus the month before. And on top of spend have been various deals offering gasoline at a stabilized price. Both Hyundai and Suzuki have offered such programs.

Caldwell says incentive spending is beginning to stabilize as automakers cut production. Ford's inventory is now down to 60 days, "which is a really healthy number even in the best of times," she says.