• by Joe Mandese  @mp_joemandese, July 23, 2009

Citing the effects of the global economic recession, as well as the impact of client General Motors bankruptcy and restructuring, Publicis Groupe reported significant revenue declines for the second quarter and first half of 2009, and said the picture for the advertising economy would get worse before it would get better.

"Given currently available information, the group estimates that the low for the year should come in July, or August at the latest, with slow recovery beginning in September," the Paris-based agency holding company said in a second quarter earnings statement released early this morning.

"The first positive growth figures should appear around the middle of 2010," the statement continued, adding the caveat, "though these would benefit from a favorable basis for comparison."

Publicis CEO Maurice Levy estimated that the advertising marketplace declined between "13% and 15% for the first half of the year," which is a much more significant number than Publicis unit ZenithOptimedia has been tracking in its recent quarterly forecasts. The agency's most recent, released earlier this month, predicted that ad spending would decline 8.6% this year, with the second half being "more stable" than the first.

"These increasingly extreme corrections have come in response to an unexpectedly steep curve," Levy stated, adding that Publicis has nonetheless managed to beat the overall advertising marketplace with revenue declines that are significantly less severe than the overall advertising recession.

"We did better than the market in the second quarter, with digital, healthcare, and emerging markets driving our revenue. We ended the first half with organic growth down 6.6% (down 5.4% excluding the impact of General Motors), a result that clearly reflects our expanding market share," he said. For the second quarter, Publicis' organic revenue declined 8.6%, or 7.4% if the effects of GM were excluded.

One of Publicis' peers, U.S.-based Omnicom Group, this morning reported a 17.4% decline in second quarter, and a 15.8% decline in its worldwide revenues.

Publicis also disclosed that it was allocating a "provision" of about $12.8 million related to the effects of GM's restructuring and its agreements with its creditors.

"However, payment received so far and steps taken by our client strongly suggest not only that this provision will suffice, but also that we can take an optimistic view of the future," the GM shop added.