• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, August 6, 2009

The latest summer sales results have retailers singing the same sad song, with practically every major chain -- at every price point -- reporting major declines for July.

RetailForward, a consulting firm in Columbus, Ohio, says its weighted index of 32 stores fell 4.6% in July -- roughly the same as the 4.7% decline last month, but down considerably from the 1.8% gain in July of 2008. And the International Council of Shopping Centers, which tracks a slightly different group of stores, says its index fell 5% in July.

And while individual stores offered all the usual explanations for the depressed results -- from bad weather to a later start to the school year to leaner inventory -- it's clear that consumers are still holding back spending in every single category.

Higher-end stores continued to fare the worst, with sales at Neiman Marcus taking a 27.3% nosedive, and results at Abercrombie & Fitch, the toniest of the teen stores, tanking 28%. Sales at Saks slipped 16.3%. But even bargain-conscious chains saw declines, with sales falling 6.5% at Target and 4.3% at Duckwall-Alco Stores. (Wal-Mart Stores no longer posts its results monthly.)

There were a few exceptions. In apparel, Aeropostale turned in a 6% jump; TJX -- owner of TJMaxx and Marshalls -- a 4% rise, and the Buckle, a 2.7% gain. And after accounting for the sky-high cost of gasoline last year at this time, sales at BJ's Wholesale Club managed a 1.8% improvement. (Including gas, results declined 9.1%.) But at rival Costco, comparable-store results gave up 2% in the U.S. (Including gasoline sales, the decline was 8%.)

The misery continued at department stores, with JCPenney reporting a 12.3% decline, Macy's posting a 10.7% dip, and Dillard's falling 12%. Nordstrom was down 6.9%. The sole winner in the category was Kohl's, which eked out a 0.4% gain.

But experts say there is good news lurking around the corner. In its ongoing ShopperScape survey, Retail Forward reports that the percentage of shoppers who say they are consciously planning to spend less in the coming month continues to drift lower, with only 47% reporting that are determined to spend less. (That number peaked at 55% in the January survey.) But with 24% of shoppers saying they are making a concerted effort to spend less on back-to-school purchases this year, short-term results are not expected to improve: The ICSC predicts a 4% decline in August results.

"Right now, that good news just isn't showing up in the numbers," says Frank Badillo, senior economist at Retail Forward. "Various factors continue to pressure results -- the tax stimulus increased last year's numbers, for example, and even the cash-for-clunkers program is diverting dollars away from store purchases. But once we get past August, we'll see some improvements, because consumers are poised to spend. And we'll get past those difficult year-ago comparisons."

Still, he cautions, months of declines are weighing heavily on stores, and this will likely result in even more closures: "Retailers will remain under pressure to shut down space, even into 2010."