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Recovery Won't Help All Media

  • Ad Age, Thursday, December 3, 2009 10:52 PM
A stabilized or upside ad market won't help everyone equally, according to a new forecast by Fitch Ratings. In order: national broadcast TV, then cable networks and large-market broadcast TV are likely to participate in any recovery, but some media will fall short of even their depressed 2009 levels, such as newspapers, yellow pages and consumer magazines. They are expected to be down again.

The New York Times Regional Media Group seemed to be anticipating continued difficulties when it announced 2009's 2.5% pay cuts stay in place for next year. Ad revenue declines are expected to slow but continue.

Radio ad revenue next year will likely come in flat compared with 2009 or down slightly, Fitch said, while outdoor advertising should begin a "slow recovery" later in the year. One broadcast net is expected by Finch to go all cable by 201; NBC and ABC were cited as the most logical candidates.

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