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by Dave Morgan
, Featured Contributor,
December 10, 2009
A lot of media forecasting was going on this week in New York City. UBS held its 37
th Annual Global Media & Communication Conference and the leaders of virtually all of the leading
media companies participated. I'm a big fan of conferences, particularly those focused on the media industry and involving investors and analysts, since their business is to ask and reask the
tough questions.
I was in the front row for all of Tuesday and Wednesday's big sessions, and spent a fair amount of time in huddled conversations in hallways and cocktail parties
as well. There's no better way to truly learn what the major media companies are trying to do and what their CEOs are thinking.You see each CEO's body language as they explain their forecasts
and strategies; you can hear which statements make their CFOs wince; and you can know which investor questions actually make them sweat.
There have been a lot of press reports from the
conference, but here are some of my notes on the presentations:
- The First Forecast: Advertising 2010. Brian Wieser of MAGNA, Steven King of Zenith/Publicis, and
Adam Smith of WPP/Group M each presented their global ad spend forecasts for 2010. The big headlines in this session were not the numbers they were forecasting, but that Wieser
abandoned GDP-driven projections for the U.S. market, relying instead on industrial production and personal consumption. And Smith told attendees that GroupM was going to start taking a
principal position in the TV media business, buying wholesale TV spots and refining and reselling them to its clients.
- Glenn Britt of Time Warner Cable and Neil Smit of
Charter Communications. Both of these cable company CEOs seemed quite excited to be starting 2010 under very different terms than they entered it. Britt, now running the cable
company freed of its former Time Warner media conglomerate ownership, offered unique opinions on Comcast/NBCU. Smit is excited that Charter is exiting bankruptcy and actually controlling its capital
structure for the first time in nine years.
- Les Moonves and David Poltrack of CBS. In separate sessions, CBS's CEO and head of research made the case that
the broadcast model for television isn't fundamentally broken, it just doesn't work for companies that can't produce andair hit shows. Both made the case that the
future of television is bright -- more people are watching more television, and the effectiveness of TV advertising continues to hold up.
- Carol Bartz of Yahoo.
Bartz is clearly a smart and experienced executive, but she was very flip with her answers and constantly minimized market perception issues. I don't think she scored a lot of
points with her investors.
- Jeff Bewkes of Time Warner. Bewkes was relaxed, commanding and quick with details in talking about the new Time Warner, with the
spin-offs of the cable company and AOL just about fully completed. He also talked up the future of TV and filmed and video entertainment, and is clearly expecting that Warner will continue
to dominate the movie and TV studio business. He was also surprisingly upbeat for the long-term prospects of Time, Inc., the magazine group.
- Bob Iger of ABC.
Iger defended the Marvel acquisition and quickly admitted that the company had done a bad job with its film studio in producing hits. He talked about his exec reorg, seemed confident in his
bets on the future of TV, and discussed his company's initiatives in Asia, particularly its new theme parks.
- Tim Armstrong of AOL. In the last stop on his public
listing road-show, Armstrong was energetic and definitive when it came to his vision for the new AOL. He was quite open about where the company had gone wrong in the past and what he
was going to do to make it better in the future.
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What do you think about these companies and their prospects for 2010? Please let us know in the comments. (Disclosure: I hold stock
in both TWX and AOL.)
Thank you for your brief thoughts and insight other than just their words and quotes at the top agency holding companies, traditional and new media organizations.
Dave, you witnessed a parade of communication styles above and beyond the tension of the topic.
Your comment about one CEO being "flip" illustrates how styles can be distracting from the information being delivered. This is a point for style flexing so your audience gets your message, not your attitude.
It's like reading tea leaves, isn't it.
Excellent commentary, observation and insight, Dave.
Thank you.