BIA: Local Ads Will Rebound In '12, Political Ads Will Aid Trad Media

arrow up

Local advertising will see a rebound --- but not until 2012, according to a recent estimate.

Media forecaster BIA/Kelsey expects the local advertising market in 2010 to be just under $128.9 billion with virtually no change in 2011, which should reach $129.8 billion.

A meaningful recovery will not happen for another two years, with an increase of 3% to $134.1 billion in 2012. That same rate of growth will continue in 2013 ($138.4 billion) and 2014 ($144.9 billion).

Local advertising has had significant declines in the last two years -- thanks to a crushing recession -- going from $156.3 billion in 2008 to $130.2 billion in 2009, a drop of 17%.

"Even with the consensus that the recession is over, we do not anticipate a rapid recovery among traditional media over the forecast period (2009-2014), because we believe the structural change in the local media industry has accelerated," the report says.

advertisement

advertisement

BIA/Kelsey says there have been larger-than-expected declines in newspapers and direct mail, and a lower rate of growth in the digital businesses: search, mobile, display and classifieds.

Changing dynamics will continue to evolve around a shift from cost-per-thousand and subscription business models to areas of performance models for advertisers.

There is one silver lining. More political advertising, pushed by a recent U.S. Supreme Court decision, is freeing up corporate political spending and will aid traditional television, radio, digital and direct-mail businesses.

BIA/Kelsey notes that last year, 55% of U.S. $235.6 billion in ad spending came from local advertising platforms -- $130.2 billion in local advertising to $105.4 billion for national advertising.

The study notes a continued shift into local digital media -- climbing from $17.5 billion in 2010 (14% of all local advertising) -- to $21.0 billion in 2011 (16%), $25.6 billion in 2012 (19%), $30.7 billion in 2013 (22%), and $36.7 billion in 2014 (25%).

1 comment about "BIA: Local Ads Will Rebound In '12, Political Ads Will Aid Trad Media".
Check to receive email when comments are posted.
  1. Mark Wellman from Webster Atlantic Corporation, February 23, 2010 at 11:10 a.m.

    As gloomy as this appears I believe we are in a constant state of change. This situation may improve after the elections this year.

Next story loading loading..