• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, June 9, 2010

More than half of all pay-TV homes could have access to a TV Everywhere-type option come next summer, according to a top Time Warner executive. CFO John Martin said Wednesday he "wouldn't be surprised" if the number hit 50 million over the next 12 months. 

Currently, Time Warner estimates that about 20 million homes paying for cable, satellite or telco TV service can access some restricted programming online at no extra cost. "TV Everywhere" is a catchall term for pay-TV operators allowing subscribers to view programming on the Web if they go through an authentication process to prove they pay a monthly bill.

Martin said "every meaningful distributor" believes leaving some online content open to its customer base is "a good idea." And they are working with Time Warner at least on moving toward a trial.

Time Warner -- and other programmers -- want to preserve the model in which operators pay it handsomely to offer networks, such as its TNT and TBS. Affiliate fees account for 28% of Time Warner's revenue, Martin said.

Should Time Warner -- and others -- provide the same on-air shows with the same commercials online, that could boost ad dollars. Nielsen is planning to combine online and traditional viewership to produce a single rating.

Time Warner has launched "HBO Go," where distributors are allowing online access to customers who pay for the ad-free HBO. However, even as Time Warner looks to construct walls around online content, TNT and TBS continue to offer free full episodes of various shows, from "The Closer" to "Seinfeld."

Speaking to investors, Martin said even if some network owners -- a Viacom or Disney, for example -- balk at participating in a TV Everywhere movement, an offering could still be compelling.

"We would hope over time there would be a considerable mass of programmers supporting the concept," he said. "Do you need everybody? No, probably not."

In partnership with CBS, Time Warner's Turner unit is expected to air all NCAA tournament games free on the Web next year. In a new 14-year deal, the two companies jointly acquired rights to the event. Turner will run games on TNT, TBS and TruTV.

Martin indicated that Time Warner is confident the massive rights deal will prove beneficial, partly because live sports continue to draw audiences in an increasingly on-demand universe. Sky-high or not, having "visibility" on programming costs through 2024 is an "advantage," since it allows the company to adapt its business accordingly.

He added that Turner, carrying the NCAA, Major League Baseball playoffs and the NBA, plans to stay in "the sports game in a big way."

"We are not in the business of trying to replicate ESPN, though," he said. "That would probably be cost-prohibitive from where we stand today, but I think sports can be a very, very important ingredient to an overall 24-hour-seven-day-a-week programming schedule."

While Turner is in the midst of its upfront deal-making, Martin again advanced the long-time cry that advertisers should pay TNT and TBS fees close to, or on par with, what broadcasters command. He said cable as an industry gets two-thirds of TV viewership, but only one-third of the ad dollars, amounting to a $5 billion gap.

"That gap is starting to close," he said. "It doesn't have to close that much for there to be a meaningful opportunity for our networks ... to pick up more than our fair share of that shift in ad dollars."