• by Karl Greenberg , August 2, 2010

Finally, the summer auto sales jolt may show up in July, with automakers shouting out about summer clearance deals in preparation for 2011 models coming this fall. After a fairly lackadaisical June, auto sales may be heading up this month by 8.9%, if predictions from Edmunds.com come true. The firm envisions that July sales -- around 1,064,400 units -- will be the highest since last August, when Cash for Clunkers was in swing.

If Edmunds is correct, it might suggest that people are returning to import brands from Japan. The numbers show major improvements versus last month for Honda, Nissan and Toyota -- while still lower than last year at least for Toyota and Honda. But the domestic automakers will be way above last year's performance, while having slipped somewhat versus last month, based on Edmunds' predictions. Ford will have been the exception, however, as the firm predicts positive sales for Ford versus both last year and last month.

Said Edmunds analyst Ray Zhou: "Retail demand for new cars this month has been the strongest of the year, even more than in March when Toyota launched an aggressive incentive campaign and other automakers followed suit."

All three domestics will see sales improvements versus last year, per Edmunds: Chrysler up 3.9% versus last year, but down about a percent from June; Ford up 13.2% versus July last year and 5.7% from June; and GM will see a 9.9% increase in monthly sales versus last year and a 5.9% increase from June.

If so, Chrysler will have 8.6% of the U.S. market, Ford will have around 17.4%, and GM 19.4%. The firm says combined U.S. market share for Chrysler, Ford and General Motors will be 44.9% -- up from 44.3% in the month last year, but down from 46.8% in June.

As for the major import brands, Edmunds predicts Honda will see a 3.7% uptick from July last year and a 11.5% improvement from June, giving Honda 11.2% of the market -- less than last year, but an improvement over last month in which Honda had 10.9% share.

Nissan's sales, if Edmunds is right, will improve by 21.8% versus last year, and 34% from last month. Toyota will be down versus last year and up versus last month as well, 5% down versus last year and 18.1% up from June, giving the automaker 15.6% share.

Edmunds also says there will be no major sales recovery on the horizon -- as retail sales for the first half of 2010 were only 11.5% above the first half of the disastrous 2009, and sales for eight automakers were actually lower than their 2009 sales numbers.

Per Edmunds, only six of the 37 brands it tracks saw sales increases in the first half and of the top 10 brands this year only Subaru, Audi and Volkswagen sold more vehicles in the first half of the year compared with the first half of 2008. The positive: General Motors Co. and Chrysler Group LLC emerged from bankruptcy with no lasting damage to public perception.