'Leno,' 'Letterman' Tie, Cable Talk Hipper, Less Viewers

Five weeks into the new season, and Jay Leno and David Letterman are virtually equal in all major metrics -- a sharp contrast to this time a year ago.

NBC's "Tonight Show with Jay Leno" has been averaging a Nielsen 3.59 million viewers -- just a bit above CBS' "Late Show with David Letterman," which is at 3.53 million. Leno and Letterman are also about the same in the all-important 18-49 category: 1.22 million for Leno; 1.18 for Letterman.

"They are very similar in age, their audience appeal, delivery, and ratings," says Brad Adgate, senior vice president and corporate media director for Horizon Media. "They will forever go on in TV history as each other's alter ego."

This time a year ago, both shows were doing better among 18-49 viewers; the reason may be late-night cable's growing offerings this year. "The Tonight Show with Conan O'Brien" was at 1.3 million 18-49 viewers; "Letterman" at a top dog, nearly 1.4 million.

This year ABC's "Nightline" is the actual overall leader in both total viewers and 18-49 viewers, with 3.8 million total viewers and 1.26 million 18-49 viewers.

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What has changed with Leno and O'Brien? While Leno's numbers are less than O'Brien's a year ago among 18-49 viewers, Leno has grabbed back older viewers. "The Tonight Show with Jay Leno" averages 3.591 million to Letterman's 3.528 million. A year ago, Letterman was at a league-leading 4.30 million to O'Brien's 2.46 million.

O'Brien's younger viewers played into this factor. His viewers' median age a year ago was 47.2. With Leno this year, it returns to an older crowd -- 56.2 years old. Letterman's viewers' median age is 55.0. Late-night cable shows are growing -- another key factor.

The best of the bunch, Comedy Central's "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart," is now at 1.67 million overall viewers and 995,000 18-49 viewers; this is versus 2009's 1.505 million overall viewers and 878,000 18-49 viewers. Comedy Central's "The Colbert Report" has also moved up -- 1.24 million overall viewers and 786,000 18-49 viewers, versus 1.09 million viewers and 696,000 18-49 viewers of a week ago.

Late-night cable shows -- "The Daily Show," "Colbert," "Chelsea Lately" and TBS' "Lopez Tonight" -- have a viewer median age between 33.6 years old to 38.8 years old, about 17 years younger than broadcasters' median age.

Analysts say O'Brien's younger audience following will fit in well with cable's younger late-night viewers when it starts on TBS this month. Adgate estimates he will capture about the same number as "Daily Show," around 1.5 million to 1.6 million overall viewers.

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