• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 8, 2010

With chains like Walmart, Target and Toys R Us continually slashing toy prices, shoppers are heading to the malls fully focused on the mission: The right toy at the right price, or they walk.

A new study from the NPD Group says that this year, 62% of buyers leave home knowing precisely what toy they want to buy for their kids, and 77% of those know exactly where they intend to purchase it. And if the toy they want isn't in stock, 42% say they would head to another store and 9% would look online. Just 22% say they would look for a different product, the Port Washington, N.Y.-based market research company reports.

The good news is that this year, there just aren't any toys that have achieved anything close to Tickle Me Elmo status. "We are hearing that there are some out-of-stock issues with Squinkies and Dance Star Mickey, but not like years past," Jonathan Samet, publisher of Toy Insider/Toy Book, tells Marketing Daily. "There really isn't a Zhu Zhu pet this year."

Instead, he says, consumers -- as expected -- are more value-focused and keen on buying more lower-priced items this year. So stores are being especially promotional: Walmart, for example, just announced that it had 20,000 items under $5, and several aisles dedicated to $1 candy, toys and games. And Toys R Us says it is launching its biggest Christmas sale ever in a special catalog and online at Toysrus.com. "From a retailer standpoint, this is the most promotionally aggressive I've seen them in years," Samet says.

With many items marked down 30, 40 and even 50%, that doesn't bode well for any store's bottom line. "In most businesses, when an item is hot, you raise the price. But in the toy business, it's the opposite -- stores have traditionally used hot items as loss leaders, to bring people into the store. The thinking is that people will come in and fill their shopping carts, but that's not happening," he says. "If people don't find the toy they want, they'll just leave."