• by Paul Gough , November 20, 2002

In its biggest lead in five years, NBC has a commanding spot in the key 18-49 adult demographic eight weeks into the fall TV season.

“NBC is rolling,” says Zenith Media Services analyst Roy Rothstein. He says NBC’s Thursday night lineup is helping to lead the way in key demographics and the network is getting help from other strong showings in other key demographics.

This season, NBC’s 4.9 Nielsen rating and 13 share – representing an audience of 6.3 million in adults 18-49 – is ahead of its nearest competitor, CBS, and slightly more than that ahead of ABC and Fox. CBS has a 4.1 rating and 11 share among adults 18-49, ahead of ABC’s 3.9 rating and 10 share and Fox’s 3.8 rating and 10 share. The WB – which targets 12-34 even though the Nielsen ratings go higher than that – has a 2.1 rating and a 5 share and UPN has a 1.8 rating and a 5 share.

It’s much the same story with adults 25-54, with NBC’s 5.5 rating and 13 share giving it the slight edge in season-to-date. CBS has a 5.0 rating and a 12 share, followed by ABC’s 4.3 rating and 10 share and Fox’s 4.0 rating and 10 share. The WB has a 2.0 rating and a 5 share and UPN has a 1.8 rating and a 4 share.

“They’re obviously having a great Thursday night,” Rothstein says of NBC. CSI is the top-rated show in Nielsen household ratings, but Friends and ER this week took the top two spots in 18-49 for the seventh time in eight weeks.

Friends reeled in a 12.1 rating and 31 share among adults 18-49 to make it the demographic’s top-rated program. (It also led in adults 18-34, adults 25-54 and adult-female demos). Friends’ lead-out program, Scrubs, retained 84% of the audience with a 10.2 rating. Rothstein says NBC has got to be happy with the sophomore sitcom’s performance on Thursday nights.

“It’s a pretty minor dropoff considering where they are,” he says. NBC says last week’s Scrubs episode had the strongest 18-49 retention in almost two years of any show following Friends other than another Friends episode. Rothstein says last week’s Frasier and its follow-on show, Hidden Hills, turned in strong numbers for NBC’s Tuesday and Monday’s performance of Fear Factor gave NBC’s two later shows, Third Watch and Crossing Jordan, a boost.

ABC’s first two weeks of the sweeps saw it go up 3% with strong weekly ratings and good ratings for not only Monday Night Football but also its Tuesday night comedy block and news magazine interviews with the Osbournes and Jennifer Lopez.