• by Dave Morgan , Featured Contributor, February 24, 2011

Online advertising technology gets a bad rap with venture capitalists these days. Many don't want to back "adtech" start-ups now, because they believe that the sector's best days are behind it. I disagree. I believe that we are going to see some really big ad tech companies built over the next five years. For perspective, I draw on the vision of legendary technologist and futurist Bill Joy.

Back in 1999, just when the Web as we know it was hitting critical mass in the U.S. Bill, as the chief scientist of Sun Microsystems, gave a series of talks describing a future with not one Web, but six. Then, we only knew the Web as a networked service accessible by personal computers. Bill's vision was that we would see a number of Webs grow around consumers, businesses and devices, and that each would thrive with their own unique characteristics. Here were his Webs:

The Near Web. This is the desktop or laptop Web. It has a small screen and tends to be used in a "lean forward" mode.

The Here Web. This is the mobile Web. It resides on phones and is personal to the user. It goes with them wherever they are. The smartphone is certainly the current embodiment of it. Perhaps the iPad is in this category, too.

The Far Web. This is the large screen in your living room or bedroom or den. It is primarily for entertainment and tends to be used in a "lean-back" mode. It also could include digital networked billboards.

The Weird Web. This is the Web of intelligent interfaces. It includes semantic recognition of voice, visual or body movements. The best current example here is Microsoft's Kinect.  What irony that Steve Ballmer is the first to truly commercialize Bill Joy's most personal Web!

B2B Web. The business-to-business Web has no interface, but operates machine to machine. This is the open network Web that will eventually replace EDI (electronic data interchange).

D2D Web. The device to device Web is all about intelligence environments, where sensors detect conditions and each other.

What do Bill Joy's Six Webs have to do with my bullishness on ad technology? To date, we only have any maturity in the ad technology associated with the Near Web: the PC-based one. We have barely scratched the surface with the Near Web (mobile) or the Far Web (TV). Most analysts believe that those two Webs alone will drive much more ad revenue than we will ever see on the Near Web. What do you think?