Predicting TV's Future: Easier Than Guessing The Next Super Bowl Winner

by Wayne Friedman, Feb 25, 2011, 3:47 PM

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Who has the better shot of getting to "number one" in his respective business -- Rex Ryan and the New York Jets,

or Joe Uva and Univision?

Both the head coach of the NFL team and the CEO of the biggest Spanish-language TV group are so confident in their upcoming elevation to the top that they needed to tell the press and others about it.

Ryan believes it won't take long for the Jets: Next year his team will win the Super Bowl, he told the press this week. A bit more conservative, Uva believes Univision will be the top-rated TV network within five years, he said in a recent earnings call to analysts.

Big-time leaders need bold visions to drive their operations. Of course, that not only puts pressure on their respective workers -- but on themselves.

For my money, Uva has a better shot at survival whether his prediction comes true or not -- if only because five years from now, we probably will have forgotten most of what he said. And if he misses a bit -- making the top in year six, for example -- he'll look like a genius anyway.

Ryan? He has been sticking his foot in his mouth for sometime -- like saying the New York Jets would win the Super Bowl this year.

Uva, as a seasoned TV business veteran, also has better numbers to work with. Census results point to continued growth of Latin American-descended residents -- with long-term projections seeing Latinos as the majority population in the U.S. by 2125.

(Just for the sake of completeness, we need to add in Steve Burke, new CEO of NBC Universal, who left a bit of wiggle room when he said recently it will take "three, four or five years" for NBC to see noticeable improvement.)

Predictions can also be a nice marketing tool -- drawing attention, as well as scrutiny. When the press bites, they create even more spin down the road. If the predictions of Ryan, Uva and other organization heads don't come true, they still get the "bold" cache attached to the characterization of their leadership abilities.

But everyone needs to tread carefully. Near the time when events are predicted to occur, one should be more humble. Blown estimates are okay when attached to sober analysis of what went wrong. More importantly, make sure your quarterback doesn't throw too many glaring interceptions.

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0 comments on "Predicting TV's Future: Easier Than Guessing The Next Super Bowl Winner ".

1. Douglas Ferguson from College of Charleston
   

   commented on: February 25, 2011 at 3:53 p.m.

   2125 -- wasn't that an old Zager and Evans song?

2. John Grono from GAP Research
   

   commented on: February 25, 2011 at 5:51 p.m.

   Douglas ... it was 2525 ... and you may end up being closer to the mark!

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