• by Wayne Friedman , April 6, 2011

DVR playback continues to rise -- with most of the activity coming from broadcast networks, and less from cable. 

A recent analysis of DVR playback activity during fourth-quarter 2010 through first-quarter 2011 shows that while broadcast networks can see 19% to 40% of their viewers -- depending on the network and demo -- watching shows during playback, the average numbers are far lower on cable networks. Veteran TV research executive Steve Sternberg conducted the research survey.

Why the disparity between the two? Sternberg writes that there are more scripted shows on broadcast than cable -- programs that are more likely to be time-shifted and played back: 32% for 18-34 viewers; 28% for 18-49; and 27% among 25-54, among the five broadcast networks.

CW averages the highest DVR playback, with 42% of its young 18-34 audience watching on a time-shifted basis. NBC had some of the lowest results: 19% among adults 25-54. CW was highest among the broader 18-49 viewers, 36%; Fox was next with 18-49 viewers at 30%; followed by ABC and CBS, each with 27%; and NBC, at 21%.

Bravo is the only ad-supported cable network that approaches the broadcast networks in terms of its viewers using DVR playback: 26% for 18-34; 23% for 18-49; and 24% for 25-54.

Most other networks are well below these figures. Only MTV, Syfy, E!, and TLC have more than 15% of their average audience among adults 18-34, 18-49 and 25-54 watching time-shifting programming. Only four -- TBS, ION, Nick-at-Nite, and Adult Swim -- have less than 5% DVR playback among the same demos.

Sternberg says his analysis reveals that 44% of adults 25-54 in TV homes had a least one DVR in the 2010-2011 season, up from a 36% mark last season. He estimates this number will climb to 50% next season.

Sternberg says last season there were only nine broadcast network prime-time series to have at least 35% of their adult 25-54 audience time-shifted via DVRs. Now there are 21, including "Gossip Girl," "Fringe," "America's Next Top Model," "90210," "The Event," "House," "Grey's Anatomy," "Survivor," "The Office," "Modern Family," "Glee," "Smallville," "The Vampire Diaries," "Off the Map," "One Tree Hill," "V," "Community," "Parenthood," "Chuck," "Desperate Housewives" and "Medium."

Still, cable does rival broadcast in this area when it comes to their big original cable dramas, which can have as much DVR playback as the most time-shifted broadcast series. These cable shows include "Burn Notice," "Psych," "White Collar," "The Closer," "Leverage," "Rizzoli & Isles," "Rescue Me," "Sons of Anarchy," "Mad Men" and "The Walking Dead" -- all about 40% or more of their adult 25-54 audience.