Forecast: TV Retrans Dollars To $3.6B By 2017

ArrowUpon-Money

TV stations' new retrans revenues will more than double in six years -- as their TV networks look to grab more of those monthly fees.  

Media research company SNL Kagan says total TV retrans dollars will rise to $3.61 billion in 2017 from a $1.14 billion total in 2010. This will occur in the midst of a slowdown of multichannel subscribers in the coming years at local cable systems, satellite and telco video companies.

Looking more near-term, SNL Kagan says retrans fees will rise 28% by the end of 2011, to $1.46 billion from $1.14 billion. Cable operators will continue to pay the most to TV stations -- $824 million -- while satellite video distributors will shell out $484.2 million and telco TV companies will give $147.1 million.

Although TV stations' monthly fees will continue to grow, existing cable networks will still command the lion's share of all monthly subscribers' fees from video operators.

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For example, SNL Kagan notes that in 2011, the biggest monthly fees were paid to ESPN/ESPN HD, getting $4.76 per average sub per month. Many other established and broad-base cable networks can receive $1.00 to $3.00 per subscriber per month, according to other estimates.

Currently, network owned-and-operated stations are averaging around $0.75 a subscriber per month, according to SNL Kagan. Estimates are that TV networks want anywhere from a 33% to a 50% share of these TV station revenues in the coming years.

Overall, SNL Kagan sees a slowdown of multichannel subscribers as U.S. TV consumers move to over-the-top TV, Internet and other digital video options in the coming years.

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