Commentary

Stewart, ESPN and "Mad Men" Drive Cable

The story about cable challenging broadcast is nothing new, but the progress markers continue to surprise. In the last few days, ESPN has grabbed rights to an event that's been on NBC forever and a company with no networks in the top 20 went public.

But, when cable executives want to make the parity argument going forward, the most firepower may come from Jon Stewart. Cable reaches fewer homes and much of it is geared towards niche audiences. Yet even with those hurdles, Stewart topped both Leno and Letterman in key ratings in the second quarter, albeit if using original episodes only.

Yes, a cable show outdrew "The Tonight Show," the American hearth when Johnny Carson held court and a continuing stalwart with Leno. And Letterman's top-10 list and notable guests were not enough to topple clips mocking Glenn Beck and more of Fox News.

It wasn't a wipeout, the Hollywood Reporter reports: Stewart barely edged the NBC star, with an average of 1.295 million viewers (18 to 49 demo) versus 1.292 million. Letterman had 1.096 million.

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And when using the traditional metric for late night -- averages for all telecasts, including repeats -- Leno beat Stewart's "Daily Show" in the quarter handily, with averages of 1.283 million and 1.167 million, respectively. 

Still, more Americans get their late night from Comedy Central than from any other source? Seems like Comedy Central might still be able to play with the ABC News-rooted tagline.

There may be further proof in Stewart's performance that young Americans are increasingly getting their news from his "Daily Show." The show airs from 11-11:30, meaning it goes against the local news in many markets.

It does not go head-to-head with Leno or Letterman and fewer people are watching TV when those two are on, a possible advantage for Stewart. Also, Stewart's show is shorter.

Still, it doesn't help the two long-time performers that Stephen Colbert goes against them on Comedy Central, which is surely chipping away at their appeal.

This augurs well for Comedy Central in 2012 when campaign foolery could boost Stewart's and Colbert's audiences further -- even with Beck off Fox -- and Leno and Letterman viewers could get grayer.

Another reason why Stewart and Colbert may become a greater force in late night is Americans may be so saturated with celebrity news that high-profile guests sitting next to Jay and Dave don't hold the appeal they once did.

Stewart's appeal also has to have NBC and CBS executives wondering anew about the future of late night on their respective networks. Leno is 61 and Letterman in 64. How much longer will 18-to-49 year-olds gravitate towards them?

And, who ultimately will replace them?

That's easy for NBC, at least.

Conan O'Brien, of course.

Uh, you may heard, NBC tried that did away with him before even a year was up. Now, Conan isn't doing so well on TBS, so he's an unlikely choice for any network.

Stewart, 48, could find CBS Corp. Leslie Moonves and NBCUniversal CEO Steve Burke trying to pry him away from Viacom's Philippe Dauman some day rather soon with a truckload of cash. (Will Dauman have to give up some of his $85 million compensation to help?)

Meanwhile, ABC shows no inclination of moving or canceling "Nightline," but that may prove to be a long-term mistake. The network could have a chance to plant the seeds of late-night leadership for years to come by moving Kimmel to 11:35 since he's 43.

Besides Stewart's victory, cable had another triumph with ESPN snagging rights to the Wimbledon men's and women's finals from NBC. It's not exactly the Final Four, but ...

Oh, that is coming to TBS.

And Cablevision spun off its networks group to create a separate public company. The new AMC Networks is led by flagship AMC, which owes much of its success to "Mad Men." But even with its strong dramas, it's not among the top 20 cable nets in the 18-to-49 demo.

So far, Wall Street has not been kind to AMC as a stock during its first two days on the market, but the fact Cablevision felt confident enough to let it stand on its own is another example of cable's growing up.

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