Commentary

Media Stocks Dancing Around, Advertising Budgets Not Yet Taking The Lead

Want to make something of those bigger losses the media companies are getting hit with as part of the stock market gyrations?

On Monday, media stocks -- the Dow Jones U.S. broadcasting and entertainment index -- tumbled nearly 7.3%, while the broader Dow Jones Industrials sank 5.6%. In a month, the Dow Jones Industrials sunk almost 15%; the broadcasting/entertainment index 20%.

CBS got the biggest slap among all big media companies, down over 10% on Monday.

CBS gets the headlines because it's always sensitive to fluid advertising revenue. Yet last week, it reported big advertising gains, as did Viacom and Time Warner.

The media economy can't get away from a relationship with the overall U.S. economy. Watching CNBC all day on Monday, and the previous Friday before, you could feel the drama -- and the connection -- just as was the case two and a half years ago.

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To some, the stock market is a future indicator. Projected growth for the economy is at around 1.5% at best. Job growth? That's another story.

Still, while you might moan about results concerning the big media companies,including CBS, smaller media companies were in worst shape: AMC Networks down 12.8%; Lin TV falling 12.7%; Sirius XM also down 12.7%; RealD, sinking 12.6%; Cumulus Media, giving back 11.9%; TiVo, losing 11.4%; Westwood One trimming 10.8%; and E.W. Scripps, sinking 10.3%.

But there was also a wide range of media stocks sinking 9% -- National CineMedia, Dish Network, Arbitron, Sinclair Broadcast, Rovi, Outdoor Channel, Crown Media, Electronic Arts, and Cablevision. Blame computer-generated selling (and buying) -- with little regard to the core health of each company.

TV advertising dollars probably aren't going to be as strong for the scatter markets as they were a year ago. That's a given. Going forward, if we are indeed approaching -- or in -- another recession, that will cause us to look for deeper long-term reasons and connections to the economy as a whole. Shrinking advertising dollars will quickly be a result.

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