• Nieman Journalism Lab, Friday, August 12, 2011 2:46 PM

Another recession -- before the one that pundits expected would come 2014 or later, when the "news industry had somehow gotten its digital transition act together and found some stable going-forward business model" -- would hit the business particularly hard, argues Ken Doctor.

One major problem: "The digital transition is still in its early stages... No major publisher is driving more than 20 percent of total revenue from digital. In fact, publishers are playing a straddle game - just as the earth underneath is cracking, a dangerous position."

Bottom line, even if the recession is stalled, "publishers are simply running out of good choices," writes Doctor. "They've been dealt a deck of wild cards, misplayed a few hands and now have fewer chips left to play."

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