Plenty Of Jabs, But No Knockouts As Industry Gurus Spar Over Future
- by Larry Dobrow , November 4, 2003
The session, "Is Your Guess As Good As... Interactive Outlook," was envisioned as an interactive forum: attendees were encouraged to use their cell phones to vote on questions relating to each of the nine discussion points, with the results displayed seconds later. However, only around 25 of the 100-odd people who filled the room participated in the voting, meaning that the spotlight fell squarely on the two speakers.
Perhaps the liveliest discussion centered around the potential of wireless advertising. Tchong had difficulty containing his enthusiasm about its promise, bringing it up during his assessment of the broadband revolution. After cautioning attendees that it's wrong to assume that broadband technology by itself will increase consumers' receptivity to online ads - "bad, bad assumption," he wagged - Tchong switched gears and announced "the power lies with the mobile phone." He talked about a recent party he'd attended, recalling how the demographically desirable attendees glanced at their cell phones every few minutes. "They're waiting for ads!," he proclaimed. "They're lonely! Send them something!"
Later in the session, Tchong brought out a circa-1984 Motorola cell phone (about the size of a Bob McAdoo sneaker, and still fully operational) to show just how far wireless has evolved in less than 20 years. Too, he noted that camera phones outsold digital cameras during the first half of 2003, further illustrating the current thirst for all things wireless. "It's a remarkable revolution, and it's going to continue," he concluded.
Ramsey acknowledged the ubiquity of cell phones and other wireless "gizmos." He noted, however, that there is little evidence to suggest that consumers will be receptive to having ads beamed straight to their phones. "Nobody wants to be interrupted," he said, adding that would-be wireless advertisers faced another major hurdle: "Unlike in Europe, we have to pay for messages coming in."
The pair also clashed about whether online advertising was poised for a resurgence anytime soon. This time, Ramsey was the optimist, pointing to his company's projections that spending on online advertising should hit $6.9 billion during 2003. The figure is a far cry from projections made during 1999 ("when we were all drinking the Kool-Aid"), but it still represents a 14.8% jump over the $6 billion spent in 2002. Ramsey also projected $7.6 billion in online ad spending in 2004; he jokingly predicted that the growth would be fueled by "the Olympics, the election and Viagra now having competitors."
By way of rebuttal, Tchong started his response by quipping, "He's full of it, isn't he?" Arguing that today's consumers "have no time to be sold," Tchong said that the impact of online advertising will be marginal at best. "All [media] is blending into one blur, and is not making sense to the consumer," he argued.
In a discussion about PVRs, Ramsey and Tchong mostly agreed that the "VCRs on steroids" posed dire consequences for the future of TV advertising. Ramsey pointed to several studies, each of which came to the same conclusion: the number-one reason consumers want these devices is to skip commercials. Tchong, on the other hand, took this thought one step further, identifying HDPCs (née home theater computers) as "the wave of the future." Though he acknowledged that CE manufacturers tend to be intimidated by marketers (who, quite understandably, aren't thrilled by what PVRs might do to TV advertising), he said that Samsung's commitment to the HDPC is a clear sign that the all-in-one technology might be realized sooner than anybody anticipated.
