• by Wayne Friedman , October 5, 2011

 

Media agency MagnaGlobal says over-the-top video services -- many of which can be obtained for little or no cost -- could grow to just under 10% of all U.S. homes in five years.

By 2016, MagnaGlobal estimates there will be 9 million homes that have video services from so-called over-the-top TV companies -- those that use digital, Internet, over the air, or other means.

Also in five years, the survey says it is revising its DVR estimates -- downward. It had projected 63.1 million homes by 2016. It now believes DVRs will get to 57.5 million homes, or 48.7% of all U.S. TV homes.

The survey believes -- as does other analysis -- that there is a maturation in the DVR market, especially when it comes to "economic pressure, causing subscribers to contain their pay TV costs." It also says DVR homes were "negatively impacted by downward revisions to new household formation growth."

Video-on-demand services show no such slowdown. In five years, MagnaGlobal says VOD will hit 65.7 million homes -- about 55.7% of TV homes. (MagnaGlobal's VOD results include Over-the-Top services.) This is up from the second quarter, where numbers stand at 54.8 million VOD homes, or 46.9% of total TV homes).

Looking at broadband access, MagnaGlobal says in the second quarter, there were 85.7 million homes -- 72.4% of all U.S. homes -- that had some sort of Internet access, 91% of these had higher-quality broadband access. In five years, this will grow to 97.1 million online homes and 95.7 million broadband households.