• by Karl Greenberg , January 3, 2012

Worldwide auto sales growth this year, driven by non-European markets, is likely to be a lot better than U.S. sales growth -- but in the U.S. certain automakers will still gain back share, and the luxury segment will be healthy this year.

Sales of cars and trucks around the world will increase 6.7% over 2011 volumes to 77.7 million vehicles, according to market research firm Polk, which says this will happen despite Europe's debt crisis. China will experience a 16% increase over 2011, with most growth outside of the large metropolitan cities of Shanghai and Beijing, Polk says.

The U.S. market, however, will experience single-digit growth because the U.S. saw healthier sales last year, says Polk -- but the economy will not revive quickly enough to drive new car buyers to showrooms in 2012 at volume sufficient to best last year's numbers.

Polk predicts that light vehicle sales will see a 7.3% increase to 13.7 million vehicles, but there won't anything like the 16 million vehicles per year that was par for the course earlier in the millennium. Polk says that will not happen until at least 2015. That said, the strongest segment in the U.S. car market this year will be luxury -- with more than 14% growth, per Polk. 

"More affluent buyers are returning to the market for new vehicles, after three years of spending reductions," said Anthony Pratt, director of forecasting for the Americas at Polk. "The luxury segment also offers a wide variety of product options for consumers across all segments, ranging from small cars to SUVs," he said.

On a brand-by-brand basis, Polk sees Toyota and Honda doing what the Detroit automakers probably would like to see not happen: after a tough 2011, they will have the greatest gains in market share growth in the U.S. in 2012 -- gaining back a chunk of what they lost last year because they will have fully recovered production eaten by the Japan tsunami and floods in Thailand. But as a result of the revived Detroit three -- not to mention Volkswagen, Hyundai and Kia -- they won't have it nearly as easy as they did back in 2007 when serious competitors in the mid-range car categories were just beginning to take hold.

Polk says competitors with more fuel-efficient options and increased infotainment features will tighten the race. Ford's announcement on Monday that it had broken the two-million-vehicle sales mark for the first time in years punctuates that point. 

Volkswagen, says Polk, will continue to win U.S. market share this year -- nearing 3% share because of the new Beetle, Passat and Jetta models. The firm expects Hyundai and Kia market share growth to be flat this year, although they will keep posting sales gains. "Traditional domestic manufacturers, General Motors, Ford and Chrysler, will continue to grow in 2012 as the industry continues to recover. Refreshed products and new product introductions will help them to compete in various segments," says the firm.

One aspect of the market that has risen to pre-crisis levels is leasing. As of October, leasing reached 41.5% of the luxury segment and 17.1% for the overall U.S. auto industry. Leasing, says Polk, will lead the luxury market, but will also gain in other segments of the market because automakers will use attractive monthly payment offers to drive traffic. That will be possible without a great margin sacrifice because residual values are higher (the higher the residual values, the lower the monthly lease payments that dealers have to charge).