• by Frank Saxe , February 5, 2003

The game to get around caller ID, answering machines, and burned-out consumers bombarded by telemarketers is increasingly making it difficult to get volunteers to take part in radio ratings provider Arbitron’s quarterly ratings panels. Last Fall, the response rate for its survey hit a ten-year low, and there are increasing calls from broadcasters and ad buyers alike for the something to be done.

A group of broadcasters known as the Committee on Local Radio Audience Measurement, or COLRAM, this week expressed “serious concern” about the declining Arbitron diary response rates. The broadcasters say those rates are at “critically low levels,” particularly in some of the largest markets. What worries COLRAM is that if the response rates go much lower, there is some questions as to whether Arbitron’s samples are projectable to the entire listening population. “In our view, Arbitron has not yet committed to implementing programs to arrest these response rate trends on a scale that would make a meaningful positive impact,” said the group in a statement.

“The committee is alarmed by the continued decline in response rates, and Arbitron’s equally alarming lack of aggressiveness in implementing measures to stem these declines,” says COLRAM chairperson Charlotte Lawyer, director of sales research at Susquehanna Radio.

Arbitron’s response rates have been slipping over the past several years. Last Summer’s survey marked a 20-year low, as only 32.6% of the people contacted agreed to track their listening. That was down from 34.4% a year earlier. In the Fall survey, completed in December, the average response rate was 34.5%, down from 36.0% a year ago.

“When response rates are as low as they are today, especially in some of the largest markets that Arbitron serves, we’re less confident that the people who participate in the survey have similar listening patterns to those who don’t participate. As a result, there’s less confidence in the accuracy of the audience estimates,” says Lawyer. COLRAM wants Arbitron to present a plan to address response rates during its March meeting.

Arbitron VP Thom Mocarsky says the company has been working with COLRAM, the Arbitron Advisory Council, and the Media Ratings Council, for some time to find ways to improve its response rates. “Response rates are a key priority for Arbitron as an organization, and we are spending more than we ever have to either raise response rates or deal with the consequences.” Arbitron is also analyzing its refusals, a significant number of which happen within the first four seconds of contact with Arbitron’s own telemarketers.

One place Arbitron is having some success is getting more people that agree to track their radio listening to actually mail back their diaries. “Arbitron has done a lot of work trying to improve the number of diaries returned by households who agree to participate in the survey, and that work seems to be bearing fruit,” says Katz Radio VP/director of research Shaunagh Guinness. According to Katz analysis of ratings data, the overall return rate increased 3% in the Fall, driven by a substantial 8.5% increase in the top ten markets. One reason for that is the adoption of a new incentive program by Arbitron. For instance, in the top ten markets, it is increased its incentive to Black and Hispanic households to $10 for every book returned. While not a lot of money, it is as much as ten times what some White households are paid.

Arbitron’s situation is not unique. Nielsen, which uses diaries in 209 markets to measure local TV ratings, is in a similar situation. Its response rate for last November’s sweeps was 32.1%. Nielsen is hoping its local people meter will be its solution. In the 55 markets where meters are already in use, Nielsen’s response rate averages 40.6%.

Horizon Media senior VP/director of research Brad Adgate calls diaries “outmoded” and is holding out hope that Nielsen’s set top meter and Arbitron’s still-in-development Portable People Meter will one day collect not only radio listening, but TV watching as well. “Peoples’ lives are really complicated and the diary is a really ineffective way to measure an audience.” For some demos, like teenagers or Hispanics it is even less effective says Adgate, noting that both are an increasing marketplace for advertisers.