• by Ken Liebeskind , March 28, 2001

By Ken Liebeskind

A report released this week by Myers Reports details the developing world of seamless media, including forecasts on wireless phone growth, mobile commerce projections and the evolution of consumer time spent with major media through 2010.

The report defines seamless media as "the ability of content providers and advertisers to reach consumers just about anywhere, 24/7." The report makes the point that, for most observers, wireless media means cell phones or emerging wireless Internet applications, but the real impact of wireless technologies will be as a catalyst for seamless media, an environment where users can access the digitized content of any medium from anywhere.

"This report chronicles where we are in the seamless media revolution and where we are going," says Jack Myers, chief economist, Myers Reports. "The seamless media age is upon us, and with it comes changes in the way consumers and advertisers use media."

The number of wireless phone subscribers in North America will nearly double between now and 2004, according to the report. The number of wireless subscribers will grow from 129 million this year to 203 million in 2004.

Wireless phone growth will be driven by better coverage and quality resulting from heavy competition among service providers; migration of users from landline to wireless for their telephone services; more bandwidth yielding more attractive services; a convergence of the Personal Digital Assistant, cell phone and PC platforms; and the transition of the Internet into the "Evernet," fueling a growing need to stay connected anywhere, anytime.

Mobile commerce (m-commerce), which is supported by wireless devices, will also grow significantly. The study doesn't say how much m-commerce revenue is being generated now, but predicts it will grow to $4.74 billion by 2004.

Mobile advertising will also grow. Again, the report didn't say how much mobile ad revenue is being generated now, but predicts it will reach $2.6 billion by 2005.

The report states that, initially, the Internet and radio will feel the impact of seamless media most profoundly, but by the end of the decade consumers will routinely be accessing TV and print media content via wireless platforms. Combined, this incremental access to new and old media will add more than 500 hours per year in total time spent by consumers with media.

While radio will continue to be the dominant "mobile" medium, accounting for a 40% share of such wireless media applications, mobile access of TV content will account for 38%, followed by wireless Web access (14%).

Print media will be the slowest to adapt to a seamless media environment, but with the advent of eBooks and wireless/satellite distribution systems, print media will account for 2% of this new seamless media segment of the media marketplace.

The 113 page report can be purchased from Myers Reports for $750. Order a copy at Myers.com or call (212) 764-5566, x 227.

- Ken Liebesk