• by David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, May 1, 2012

Network executives are working feverishly on their upfront presentations. Advertisers just want them to be short.

On the flip side, advertisers are working feverishly on getting their budgets together for the deal-making. Network executives want them to be large.

One thing’s for sure, the broadcast upfront market continues to have a dynamic rare in business: consumers use a product less, yet a seller is able to charge more for it. Ratings drop, but advertisers pay more. If people sour on Big Macs, would McDonald’s succeed in raising prices 10% a year?

Yet, until ad buyers believe TV has markedly lost effectiveness -- the opposite is trending -- they are likely to feel it’s worth paying more to reach those still tuning in. Demand will go up as supply goes down.

So, as preparations take place on the buy and sell sides, it’s time for this month’s Leaders & Bleeders:

LEADERS:

1) WEATHER CHANNEL: The network turns 30 next week. When the Cable TV Museum opens, the Weather Channel will have a massive display. ESPN, CNN and the network are successful cousins, having proven their genres could unexpectedly fill networks 24/7. Unlike ESPN and CNN, though, the Weather Channel hasn’t faced much competition since the early 1980s. Separately, Weather.com continues to be a big hit and digital success should only continue under new CEO David Kenny.

2) RYAN SEACREST – If he went public, it would be one hot IPO. He’s such a coveted personality that networks don’t mind sharing him. He’s re-upped as host of “American Idol” on Fox; has a new sprawling deal across NBCUniversal; and should continue to host ABC’s New Year’s Eve special. He also had a Clear Channel radio deal, but maybe most impressively, he's established himself as a successful producer, notably with “Keeping Up with the Kardashians” on E!. That's opening all kinds of options because for Hollywood producers, one huge hit buys leeway for multiple flops.

3) NBCU'S FUNCTIONAL FAMILY – Large media companies have long made efforts to establish cross-department partnerships, but with limited success many times, even as cooperation opportunities seem natural. NBCU seems to be moving through the bureaucracy, though. Telemundo and Fandango will launch a Spanish-language film site. The Style network and DailyCandy site are partnering on StyleCandy, a venture to produce content across multiple platforms. CNBC is even airing the NHL playoffs. Not sure if that’s leading to mad money, but it juices prime time on the network.

4) NEW FRONTIER – Leading Web video sites have successfully planted the flag on an annual upfront-style NewFront event series, which should draw further interest in the years ahead. Questions persist whether an upfront-style sales market will follow. Still, the prospects may be better with Hulu and AOL announcing some compelling opportunities. Hulu says advertisers will only be charged if ads run in full and AOL will offer TV-style guarantees.

5) BEN SILVERMAN– The “content is king” mantra is tired and should be retired. So, give Electus chief Ben Silverman credit for unleashing a new industry catchphrase: "Even if broadcast is king, consumer is God." The divine wording came at a recent NAB event and was reported by Variety’s Brian Lowry.

BLEEDERS:

1) “CBS THIS MORNING” – The A.M. show seems to be as forgotten as Herman Cain. “Good Morning America” is on fire. Last week, it topped “Today” (with Matt Lauer) in total viewers for the second time in three weeks. Also, in the key 25-to-54 demo, it trailed “Today” by the narrowest margin in 16 years. In January, CBS relaunched “The Early Show” as "CBS This Morning," hoping a news focus would help in an election year. No luck. Ratings are down compared to the struggling “Early Show” by 9% in total viewers and 10% in the 25-to-54 demo. EW writes the show “seems to lean toward the retirement set.” Charlie Rose was smart to keep his night job.

2) LOCAL STATIONS – The business lost big time after a lobbying effort failed and the FCC decreed stations must post what they charge political candidates online. Non-political advertisers might use the information to gain a leg up with their negotiations. Wall Street has taken notice. Wells Fargo’s Marci Ryvicker wrote “while this might not sound earth-shattering to investors, our view is that this requirement could have adverse implications” for stations, adding the ones owned by the Big 4 networks might suffer the most.

3) THE AD MARKET – Ignore the Summer Olympics and Super PACs and the TV ad market appears poised for tepid growth this year. Excluding the Olympics and campaign dollars, MagnaGlobal has revised its national TV growth forecast downward, from 2.9% to 2.3%. On the local level, station dollars are projected to grow only 0.8%. Separately, analysts expressed frustration at Procter & Gamble’s recent performance. P&G has indicated it may cut back on ad spending. It will be interesting if it carries through, or spends more to recover.

4) CHICAGOIMPACT – Interest in the NBA has been strong, but the Eastern Conference Finals on ESPN could take a ratings hit. The injury to Chicago Bulls star Derrick Rose could dampen a possible blockbuster Miami-Chicago series. Also, ESPN and Fox would welcome a strong season from the addicted-to-losing Cubs, but even under new leadership, they’re in last place.

5) REALITY TV -- Naysayers claiming people will balk at reality TV's copycat tendencies continue to be wrong. Still, how many shows about people searching for gold in abandoned storage lockers can there be? Both Bravo and E! are smart to hedge their bets by moving into scripted programming. Then again, it’s expensive and much harder to find success than by chronicling self-absorbed housewives and Kardashians.