Back-to-School Forecast: Cloudy And Careful
Yes, we know the yellow buses only unloaded the last of the neighborhood school kids 15 minutes ago. But that means it’s time for the economic experts to think about back-to-school shopping, and what it might signal for the industry’s mighty fourth quarter.
June’s Consumer Confidence Index declined a bit, its fourth straight month of moderate declines, which likely will influence chains as they prepare inventory and plan promotions, Doug Hart, partner in the retail and consumer product practice at BDO USA, tells Marketing Daily.
He says he expects consumers to be extremely cautious as they get ready to do their back-to-school shopping, especially because of a barrage of potentially downbeat headlines, including the European debt crisis. Even ads for the upcoming elections, highlighting weaknesses in the economy, may make consumers less likely to spend.
“Though consumers stateside may not fully recognize the impact, ripple effects resulting from Europe’s ongoing financial meltdown, including a pullback on bank lending and capital markets, may have an effect, especially if it creates ripples in the job market or in their own portfolios,” he says.
As a result, he’s expecting this year to echo last year’s start-then-stop pattern. “Last year, we started great guns but then lost some steam,” he recalls. “There’s a lot that can happen in July and August that may influence shoppers’ perceptions.”
During last year’s holiday season, he points out, retailers were somewhat successful pulling shoppers ahead in the calendar, and he expects them to try some of those same techniques as the summer wears on. “I think we may see some kick-off dates, for example, with heavy back-to-school promotions. I doubt we’ll see retailers staying open 24 hours at a time, as we did last Christmas, but stores will try and create some of that excitement.”
Still, he expects stores to behave as cautiously as consumers: “Retailers are sensitive to the possibility that sales could flounder in the second half.”
Recent Marketing Daily Articles
-
Nissan Opens Door To Versa Launch June 19, 2:18 p.m.
Nissan’s new Versa Note is a "A Door to More" in the automaker’s campaign for the ... -
Saks Fifth Avenue Rolling Out New Campaign June 19, 11:12 a.m.
Saks Fifth Avenue is debuting a new marketing campaign, which it hopes will sell shoppers on ... -
JetBlue, Marriott Top Their Industries June 19, 12:23 a.m.
Just as the summer travel season heats up, the American Customer Satisfaction Index (ACSI) has released ... -
Evian Launches Wimbledon 'Wiggle' Social Effort June 18, 5:20 p.m.
<Evian -- no slouch at driving buzz during the Wimbledon tournament -- has come up with ... -
GMA/PwC Report: CPGs' Growth Slows Amid 'Rules' Shift June 18, 3:56 p.m.
Net sales growth rates for consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies slowed last year amid challenges including ... -
Industry Is Expanding In Advertising, Social June 18, 12:29 p.m.
Retailers are planning to spend big on more stores, digital technology and marketing initiatives in the ... -
Chevrolet's Fleck Talks Northeast Strategy June 18, 9:23 a.m.
Bill Fleck, Chevy's Northeast regional marketing manager, has a lot of work to keep him up ... -
Affluence Not Just For Affluent June 18, 8:58 a.m.
For affluent consumers, traditional media is still the way to go, per the latest monthly study ... -
Marriott Modifies Marketing Message June 17, 3:47 p.m.
Holiday Inn Express may advise people to “Stay Smart,” but Marriott Hotels wants to be more ... -
DeMoulin: Booming Licensing Show = Booming Business June 17, 9:05 a.m.
The Licensing Expo starting on Tuesday is the largest such event in the world, bringing 16,000 ...
Be the first to comment on "Back-to-School Forecast: Cloudy And Careful "
Leave a Comment