Financial Focus: Help Wanted As An Economic Indicator

Extra, extra--read all about it: Is help wanted finally coming back?

It's not only the Bush administration and millions of jobless who have been waiting for this moment. Most of the country's newspaper publishers saw their classified employment revenues tank in late 2000, and they're still waiting for them to come back. It's dragged earnings, led to cuts in newsrooms, and has caused most newspaper executives to say that they won't believe a recovery is here until the help-wanted classifieds return. Even as the rest of the newspaper industry's advertising revenues returned to (somewhat) healthy results, the same couldn't be said for employment advertising.

Until now.

"The strength in February help-wanted revenues suggests we have begun to see (at last!) a rebound in this important category," said Goldman Sachs analyst Peter Appert in a research note released Friday.

He said that while the recovery is still a mixed bag, total industry ad revenue growth rose to 4 percent in February compared to 2.9 percent in January, and that help wanted can get the credit for that. He told investors that Goldman Sachs' focus is on "those companies demonstrating accelerating ad revenue growth, strong help-wanted momentum, and the cost discipline necessary to translate revenue strength into potential earnings upside."

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The winners? Gannett and Tribune.

YEAR OF THE COMEBACK -- And speaking of recoveries, that's exactly what Forbes magazine proclaimed Sunday with its latest cover story: "The Year of the Comeback." Thirty-four of the 39 industries registered profit growth in 2003, with Fortune 500 companies taking in $7.5 trillion in revenues and $445.6 billion in profits.

ON THE OTHER HAND -- You might want to tell that to the advertising agency holding companies, all of whom finished trading Friday down along with a lot of the rest of the markets. Havas, which owns MPG, led the declines with a 9 cent drop to $5.31 a share. Interpublic Group of Cos., which owns Universal McCann and Initiative Media, was down 9 cents to $15.11. Publicis, which owns Starcom MediaVest Group, was down 40 cents to $30.50. Grey fell less than 1 percent, and WPP Group PLC fell 4 cents to $51.54.

Only Omnicom shares rose during Friday's trading, up 14 cents to $77.54.

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