Pivotal's Wieser Pivots, Downgrades U.S. Ad Economy
Citing media company earnings reports and comments from media buyers, influential Wall Street analyst Brian Wieser has downgraded his estimates for U.S. ad expansion this year and through 2017. Describing previous upbeat sentiment as a "false dawn," Wieser downgraded this 2012 U.S. ad growth projection by nearly a percentage point to +1.4% from his previous estimate of +2.3%.
The new 2012 growth estimate is only marginally better than 2011's actual expansion of 1.3%, which is troubling given that 2012 has incremental stimulis such as the Summer Olympics and political campaigns, and historically grows at a faster rate than non-quadrennial years.
"With the US 'fiscal cliff' unlikely to be resolved soon, and with economists downgrading their expectations for the economy at the same time, we’re skeptical that the third quarter 202 will reverse course again," Pivotal Research Group's Wieser writes in a research note sent to investors and the media this morning.