• by Wayne Friedman , David Goetzl  @dgoetzl, May 29, 2013

The broadcast upfront market is starting to churn with Fox writing some business, continuing its pattern of moving the week after Memorial Day. The network had a rough season with ratings down more than 20% in the adult 18-to-49 demo.

Barclays has forecast Fox’s upfront haul to drop 15% to $1.88 billion from $2.21 billion last year. That would be more than what’s expected at NBC, but considerably below predictions for CBS and ABC, which would each clear $2.5 billion.

Overall, Barclays forecasts the Big Four to bring in slightly higher volume than last year at $9.2 billion versus $9.15 billion.

Fox has been seeking 8% CPM increases or higher, according to Variety, which first reported Fox’s deal-writing, as well as ABC as being in negotiations. Barclays predicts the network will land them in the 5.5% range.

In the cable market, a media-buying executive said Viacom is working on "conceptual deals" regarding MTV -- which are preliminary agreements with few programming specifics that are pegged to agreed-upon marketplace rate increases/decreases.

One report suggested Viacom was looking for 6% increases in CPMs. But media executives were looking to limit hikes to 3%.

Another media-buying executive estimated Fox has done about 60% of its expected deals.

With regard to Fox moving early again, an executive said: “I don't know why people would rush there. ‘American Idol’ and ‘X Factor’ aren't what they were. But they are still higher than the average network show. Maybe advertisers have good bases there.”

Fox, NBC, and CBS representatives had no comment; an ABC spokesperson did not respond by press time.