Mags Record Ninth Consecutive Month Of Ad Page Erosion In February

The magazine business ran its losing streak to nine months with Friday's release of the Publishers Information Bureau data for February. Pages dropped 5 percent against the year-ago period--the biggest percentage drop since September 2003's 4.5 percent stumble--with ad revenue up 4.6 percent. In the first two months of 2004, the business has seen a 2.7 percent decline in pages and a 7.2 percent jump in revenue. Assuming the PIB revenue trend data is accurate, that would mean publishers have managed to boost ad rates 10 percent during a period of uncertain demand.

Harlan Schwarz, senior vice president-advertising marketing at the Magazine Publishers of America, attributes the slow 2004 start to "pervasive uncertainty over the economy" that hit during the fourth quarter, "when marketing decisions were made for first-quarter titles."

Members of the media buying community view the results a bit more skeptically. "I don't see anything that says 'big change coming,'" says Jack Hanrahan, director of U.S. print operations at OMD. "There's really no reason for me to think that things will get better soon."

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Adds MindShare senior partner-group research director Debbie Solomon: "Even after all the magazines that shut down recently, I still wonder about the number of titles out there. Are there more magazines than readers can read and advertisers want to support?" Even so, agency executives noted the volatility is not unique to consumer magazines. Radio, national newspapers, and Sunday supplements have reported weak starts to 2004, a year that by most forecasters' accounts is expected to end on a relatively healthy note. "We're just not in an especially bullish media market right now," MindShare's Solomon shrugs.

OMD's Hanrahan affirms: "Everybody except outdoor is seeing similar softness." And while the magazine business isn't expected to get as much lift as broadcast television from the upcoming Olympics/elections dyad, Solomon says she believes weekly titles could well benefit from the predicted spending frenzy.

"The news magazines and some of the other weeklies should do well, though I'm not sure about monthlies," she notes. "I read somewhere that President Bush is going to spend $60 million--TV stations are not going to get all of that."

Of the 12 ad categories watched by PIB, which comprise more than 85 percent of all mag ad spending, only two experienced page increases in February against the year-ago period: toiletries/cosmetics (up 6.4 percent) and media/advertising (up 3.7 percent).

Surprisingly, automotive saw the biggest drop, with 263 fewer pages in February 2004 than in 2003 (an 18.5 percent plunge). Eight out of 12 categories gained in revenue against February 2003 levels, led by public transportation/hotels/resorts (up 17.9 percent, to $54.4 million) and apparel/accessories (13.9 percent, $96.0 million).

Although two months is too small a sample from which to draw conclusions, it's interesting to note that the automotive category--long hyped by the MPA as the industry's white knight--has slipped behind direct response in total 2004 ad pages: 2,846 to 2,647. Automotive currently sits 11.4 percent off its 2003 pace. Public transportation/hotels/resorts, on the other hand, leads all categories in percentage growth (8.6 percent) in 2004, although it benefits from relatively easy year-on-year comparisons.

Among individual titles, 2004's best performers to date include FHM and Scientific American, both of which have more than doubled their page counts over the same period last year (respectively, 113.3 percent and 114.0 percent). The resurgent Playboy has enjoyed 45.4 percent growth, to 137.0 pages from 94.2, and Fit Pregnancy has surged 31.2 percent in pages despite a puzzling 34.1 percent drop in ad revenue. Modern Bride leads in total ad pages, with 509.9, followed closely by TV Guide (469.2), Power & Motoryacht (437.4), People (423.7), and InStyle (423.3).

Surprisingly, one of 2003's top-performing categories--Spanish-language titles--is off to a slow start in 2004. Latina has plummeted 31.8 percent in ad pages against the first two months of 2003, with RD Selecciones (-25.3 percent) and People En Espanol (-10.1 percent) also seeing significant drop-off.

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