• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, December 1, 2013

While holiday shopping got off to a slightly stronger start than last year, the decision of many retailers to open early on Thursday may be the season's biggest turkey so far. Both the National Retail Federation and ShopperTrak are reporting scant sales gains over the four-day period. And while millions thronged malls to shop on Thanksgiving Day, those Feast Day gains cannibalized Black Friday sales.

The NRF says 141 million unique shoppers were active over the four-day period -- up from 139 million. But they spent less -- an average of $407.02 from Thursday through Sunday, down from $423.55 last year. And ShopperTrak reports that traffic at brick-and-mortar stores gained 2.8% Thursday and Friday, with sales rising 2.3% to $12.3 billion. But Black Friday itself was a big loser, with traffic dropping 11.4% and sales declining 13.2%.

“Forecasts called for weak to moderate sales, and I didn't see anything this weekend that would change those expectations,” Mark Larson, KPMG’s global head of retail, tells Marketing Daily. “While I wouldn't say they shot themselves in the foot by opening Thursday, I think these results will cause retailers to evaluate the best course of action next year.” 

Still, earlier Thursday openings allowed stores to attract a different kind of shopper. “I saw many more families and groups of people shopping together, not just single Millennials,” says Ramesh Swamy, a retail advisor with Deloitte, who was out scouting stores both Thursday and Friday. “Clearly, there was good activity.” But he tells Marketing Daily he also saw a large amount of promotional activity, especially in apparel.

While Larson wouldn't comment specifically on how viral videos of fistfights at Walmart -- currently garnering millions of views on YouTube and Facebook -- might impact the brand, “retailers clearly have to deal with the overall impact of social media.”

The NRF, which conducted its survey of 4,400 adults with Prosper Insights & Analytics, says that Thanksgiving Day traffic jumped 27% from last year, with 45 million shopping. 

The biggest winners so far are online retailers. The NRF reports that 42.1% of Americans shopped online over the weekend, spending $177.67. That's about 43.7% of their total weekend spending, up from 40.7% last year. Adobe reports that sales for Thursday and Friday reached a record $1.93 billion and $1.06 billion, respectively. And IBM says online sales on both Thanksgiving and Black Friday climbed 20%. Mobile made spectacular gains, accounting for 40% of all online traffic.

Still, observers are concerned that restrained consumer spending, a shorter holiday season and lots of price-slashing promotions may make this a less than jolly holiday for stores. Adds Swamy: “The real trick will be if retailers can maintain this momentum.”