• by Sean Hargrave , Staff Writer, July 8, 2014

Sport is massive right now with the World Cup reaching its climax without England (did you expect any different?), Wimbledon having just finished and the Tour De France starting off with three legs in the UK (I'm sure I'm not the only one who couldn't explain that one when the kids asked).

So it could just be the hype, it might just be the giddy excitement of one of the most entertaining World Cup competitions ever staged but.... GBP60m a season to supply Man United with kit? That's more than double the current deal Nike had held since 2002, including a cut of kit sales. 

Now, every football fan knows every top club is going to do all it can to get around the Fifa financial fair play rules -- whereby a sugar daddy can overcome poor club finances and just keep bankrolling top players' wages -- but this would appear to be taking the proverbial biscuit. To put it into perspective, and to note an interest this author has, that's double the deal Chelsea (where I'm a season ticket holder) has signed with Adidas up until 2023. 

If there's one thing the recession and digital has taught us is that we can never expect to go back. Whoever coined the phrase "the new norm" deserves a medal because that's exactly where we are. Consumers know what they are worth and the battle to serve them better for less that intensified with the downturn is not going to reverse just because we're now in positive growth.

So, if being digital is accepting that right now could well be the new norm, what does that mean for a football club expecting to break every glass ceiling imaginable because of past glory?

Just to show football and digital marketing do mix, I had a wonderful chat and play with figures with the analysts at SapientNitro recently -- honestly, if you get the chance speak to them about analytics, it's truly fascinating what they can work out. Anyway, their main point about football is there's a lot of luck in the game but you obviously stack the odds in your favour by having the most skillful players. Hence, Manchester United's downward spiral could be linked back to selling Ronaldo and a couple of other key players leaving without being adequately replaced.

Using the analytics engines that tell M&S how many blue knickers to order in compared to grey (honestly, I'm not kidding) the chart predicting the club's demise was there in black and white, just waiting for Moyes to take over and take the wrap. 

The conclusion -- well, the one I came to anyway -- was that Manchester United didn't get digital's big lesson that now is the new norm -- you can't just assume good times are going to roll back again. They had a lucky season or two with a worn-out team before Sir Alex left but they were soon found out when they presumed getting another Scot with a hard work ethic and reputation for not suffering prima donnas would carry on the good days. 

Not accepting that now is the new norm and just presuming a like-for-like replacement would work out meant they were papering over the cracks in the hope they would return to former glory days. As we all know, it didn't work out.

It means they now enter their final season with Nike expecting, presumably, that Adidas to double the value of a deal for a club that finished seventh last year and will have no European football this coming season. Optimists will say that's a one-season setback, but is it? Could it not be the new norm that if you can't attract the top players to a club because of a lack of European football and you can't break fair pay rules then you might just have to accept that success is no longer guaranteed. Lack of success is not just a season spent licking wounds and waiting for results to turn around.

So there is a warning here for all marketers -- particularly those who have been holding out for the good days to return. Who says they will? Who says consumers who have got by without your luxury brands or your top upgrades are suddenly going to flock back?

Who says that because you did well a couple of seasons ago with different players the contract to supply your players with kit is worth twice tomorrow what it is today?