• by Sarah Mahoney  @mahoney_sarah, October 5, 2014

As retailers move into fourth-quarter marketing, there are early indications that there will be plenty of holiday cheer to go around. Deloitte is predicting that holiday sales will increase between 4 and 4.5% this year, rising to as much as $986 billion. (Last year, sales gained 2.8%.)

And it expects that digital interactions, including smartphone and tablet searches, will influence 50% of store sales. In nonstore channels, including online and direct mail purchase, it’s anticipating a sales rise of between 13.5 and 14%.

“Income, wage and job growth are positive indicators heading into the holiday season,” says Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist, Daniel Bachman, in its report. “Debt levels remain at historical lows, and stock market gains coupled with increasing home prices have a wealth effect on consumers.” He adds that gas prices have also remained steady, “which may also sustain consumers’ spending power.”

The consultancy also reports that 84% of consumers are using digital tools, either before or during their shopping excursions. And because those shoppers make purchases at a 40% higher rate than those who don’t, Deloitte is encouraging stores to flex their digital marketing muscle as much as possible.

“Retailers should focus on the right functionality, rather than more functionality, when creating digital experiences this holiday season,” adds Alison Paul, Deloitte’s vice chairman, and retail and distribution sector leader, in the report. "Retailers that better understand how consumers make purchasing decisions, then deliver tools that support that process in a way that is consistent and complementary across online, mobile and store channels — may have the advantage."

Deloitte’s forecast is the first of the major forecasts to be released. The National Retail Federation says it intends to release its predictions within the next few days.