Monterey, Calif.-based media research company SNL Kagan says retransmission revenues coming from pay TV providers to TV stations are estimated to grow to $9.3 billion by 2020 -- up from $4.9 billion this year.
Retransmission revenues are now projected to rise to $8.78 billion by 2019. A previous estimate forecast that 2019 would bring in $7.64 billion.
In three years, SNL Kagan expects TV stations to get an average $1.32 per subscriber/month in retransmission fees. Kagan says that will be the fifth-highest price that any TV programmer gets from a pay TV distributor.
ESPN will continue to get the highest price -- estimated to grow to $7.72 from around $5 today, followed by TNT at $1.92. Regional sports networks will be projected to reach $1.26.
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But TV stations' payments will also increase, which in turn will send part of that retransmission money back to their respective networks.
SNL Kagan says so-called “reverse retransmission” will rise to $1.53 billion in 2015 and hit $3.22 billion in 2020 -- and that these payments will increase to comprise 59% of affiliates' retransmission payments.