Microsoft, numberFire Using Big Data To Predict The Super Bowl

Microsoft Bing has been using Big Data analytics to predict games throughout the NFL playoffs, but it isn't the only company that's crunching the numbers.

The Wall Street Journal on Thursday highlighted numberFire, a startup that raised $1.45 million in seed funding and is also using Big Data to predict the outcome of the big game.

“On Sunday, numberFire is releasing a website, numberFire Live, that will let Super Bowl spectators predict the outcome of the game, too,” writes the WSJ. “As the game unfolds, the site will run algorithms on millions of rows of data on every player and each team, combining historical data with real-time updates."

The company's algorithm spits out a real-time readout of the likelihood each team has of winning the game after every play. Also after each play, numberFire predicts the most likely outcome of the drive, whether it is a touchdown, field goal or punt.

And while the Super Bowl MVP award is handed out at the end of the game based on voting, numberFire asserts the real answer is in the data.

The company’s “man of the match” algorithm attempts to answer the questions: “Which player has had the great impact on his team? [Which player] should be named MVP?” After each play, the company gives every player a score based on how much he, individually, helped his team’s odds of winning the game.

In theory, this means the “man of the match” could actually be a player on the losing team, although the actual Super Bowl MVP award has been given to a player on the winning team all but once in renditions I through XLVIII.

numberFire declined to disclose its final prediction to the WSJ, but promised a close game. Microsoft Bing predicts a Patriots victory, saying New England has a 51.5% chance of beating the Seattle Seahawks when the two square off on February 1.

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