Commentary

A Young Media Person's Guide to Analyzing Pilots

I've been analyzing television programming for more than 30 years. I’ve seen many good pilots become weak series and some lackluster pilots become excellent, long-running hits. 

People ask ask what I look for when evaluating a pilot. Here are some guidelines.

Comedies should be funny because of the characters, not the plot.  Is it a one-joke show or can it be maintained as a weekly series?

I recently saw an interview with Jon Cryer, one of the stars  of CBS’ long-running "Two and a Half Men." He was talking about how, between his success on the movie, "Pretty in Pink" and his successful CBS show, he was getting a reputation as a show killer. (Someone who appears in lots of pilots that don’t get picked up or quickly become flops.)

One of those failed shows, "The Famous Teddy Z,"  had one of the funniest pilots I’ve ever seen. Cryer portrayed a guy who worked in the mail room of a major talent agency.  Through a hilarious string of events, he becomes the top talent agent in the company.  By the second episode, however, it was a different show, and couldn't be maintained on a weekly basis. 

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Other funny pilots that come to mind are "Golden Girls," "Cheers," "The Big Bang Theory" and "Modern Family." But I can't recall what any of them were about. They were funny because the characters were funny and compatible, not because of anything that happened in the pilot. The casts had strong chemistry, and people wanted to see them interact week after week. 

The best and most successful comedies all have this in common. It's difficult to write 15-22 strong story lines in a season.  People tune in for the characters, not the plot. They're called situation comedies for a reason. People want slight variations of the same situation week after week. This is the main reason shows like  "Seinfeld" and "The Big Bang Theory" can thrive in syndication and on cable, with viewers watching the same episodes over and over again.

What will a drama's third or fourth episode be like?  It's relatively easy for seasoned TV writers to write one compelling medical, courtroom, or police drama.  We need to consider the potential strengths and charisma of both the lead and supporting characters. Is the pilot a good one-time movie, or will it make a good weekly series?

Stars don’t make shows; shows make stars.  The failed TV series with major stars are too numerous to list here.  In most cases, it's the show that makes the star, not the other way around, particularly for younger-skewing series. Think "Friends," "Grey's Anatomy," "Mad Men" or "Glee."

Some stars, such as Tom Selleck, can bring longtime fans to a show, but without a strong supporting cast, the show will not succeed. Established stars usually bring high viewer expectations, which are often hard to live up to. 

Most series look better in a conference room than in your living room.  I typically watch a pilot in a conference room, on a DVD sent to me by the networks or on a special Web site that I can watch at my leisure. There are no commercials and no distractions.  When the show finally airs, of course, it will be on following some other program, and opposite other shows. Scheduling and the competitive landscape are often just as important to a show's success as the quality of the show itself.

Most big hits are accidental.  My track record of predicting new series hits and misses is pretty good.  At least nine out of 10 shows I think will flop do. (It's easier to pick a miss than a hit).  I'm also pretty good at predicting which new shows might win their time periods.  But the big-time hits almost always come out of nowhere.

Anyone who says they predicted that "Friends," "Law & Order," "CSI, "Grey's Anatomy," "Lost," American Idol" or "The Blacklist" would be instant hits is lying.  You just never know what's going to click with a broad spectrum of viewers.  The next  "Modern Family," "24" or "Empire" is right around the corner.

But we won't know it until the debut.

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