• by Wayne Friedman , December 9, 2015

In sharp contrast to other weak TV ad estimates for next year, CBS’ senior executive David Poltrack says broadcast TV network advertising business will soar to near double-digit percentage gains in 2016.

Speaking at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference on Monday morning, Poltrack, chief research officer of CBS Corp., says broadcast networks will climb a big 9.5% in advertising next year.

Taking out next year’s Summer Olympics will still mean a robust 5% gain for the broadcast networks, says Poltrack.

He adds that there is a possibility with a strong Olympics that broadcast networks could see a double-digit percentage gain -- which would be the first double-digit percentage advertising increase since 2004.

All this would be in high contrast to mid to low, 1% to 3% percentage gains estimated by many other media agencies and other research concerns.

One major indicator for this estimate, according to Poltrack, comes from the large price increases in current scatter market -- which, he adds, will mean a strong upfront market in the summer. Networks are also benefiting from more inventory to sell this scatter season, due to lower sellout levels made during the upfront market last summer -- when the marketplace was weak.

Poltrack believes TV marketers are now tiring of digital media which hasn’t overall fulfill it’s promise. He says it is not about price "efficiency" but more "reach" -- which is TV’s forte. He says: “A change is now underway.”

Still, there is more work to be done. TV advertising has not captured back its prerecession advertising/marketing share  -- which was at 24% of all marketing dollars. TV now has 21.8% share. Should TV get back to its previous share level, Poltrack says this will mean an additional $20 billion in TV advertising spending.