Commentary

2016 Is Not The Turnaround Year For Newspapers

Disruption, destruction, reinvention: Whatever you want to call what the Internet does to established industries, newspapers publishers were one of the first to be hit. And the painful process is still very much underway, judging by first-quarter results, which show that the business isn’t out of the woods yet.

This week, The New York Times Co. reported that total revenues sank 1.2%, from $384.2 million in the first quarter of 2015 to $379.5 million, due largely to a 7% drop in ad revenue to $140 million, which in turn resulted from a 9% drop in print ad revenues and a 1% drop in digital ad revenues.

These losses more than offset a 2% increase in circulation revenues, to $218 million, due mostly to growth in digital-only subscription revenues, which jumped 14% from $47 million to $54 million.

Tribune Publishing, now battling an unsolicited takeover bid by Gannett, fared a bit better in the first three months of the year. Total revenues remained basically flat, slipping from $398.3 million to $398.2 million. Like its peers, Tribune reported continued declines in advertising revenue, which fell 4.4% to $215 million in the first quarter of the year, or 12.4% when revenues from the newly acquired San Diego Union-Tribune are excluded.

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Digital ads at Tribune were stagnant, edging up 0.8% to $45.7 million. These losses canceled out a 1.7% increase in circulation revenues, to $122 million (again taking into account the U-T acquisition).

Also this week, News Corp. reported results for its third fiscal quarter, when total revenues fell 5% from $2 billion in 2015 to $1.9 billion this year, when foreign currency fluctuations are taken into account. Revenues at its newspaper division tumbled 9% from $1.35 billion to $1.23 billion, reflecting a 15% drop in ad revenues and a 4% drop in subscription and circulation revenues.

News Corp. CEO Robert Thomson was somewhat critical of agencies for chasing new trends with little proof of effectiveness, predicting a return to quality. “With the advertising market in the midst of upheaval, advertisers and agencies are experimenting with their spend. We believe that premium mastheads and audiences are currently undervalued by agencies, some of which are more focused on fashion than function.”

Thomson added: “With Silicon Valley’s demand for quality content more voracious than ever, and advertisers seeking greater digital accountability, we believe News Corp is ideally positioned to capitalize on these macro-trends through the power of its global mastheads and large and growing premium audiences.”

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