When Coen--the senior vice president and director for forecasting at Universal McCann--issued his last forecast in early December, he projected that the four broadcast nets would be up 9.5 percent over 2003's figures, with $16.4 billion. He has now revised that figure to be $16.7 billion, which will actually be an 11.2 percent rise in ad dollars for the major broadcasters.
Coen made similar slight adjustments to his final tally of 2004's media expenditures.
The final U.S. ad spending in all media totaled $263.766 billion in 2004--up 7.4 percent from $245.477 billion in 2003, he said. In December 2004, Coen estimated that 2004 spending would be up 7.4 percent to $263,699 billion. Spending growth by national advertisers grew by 9.6 percent. Previously, he predicted that national marketers would spend 8.9 percent more than in 2003, with a total of $165.9 billion--the final number is $167 billion.
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Advertising spending by the smaller local marketers increased at the much more modest pace of only 4.0% last year, although Coen had earlier warned of cutbacks by these advertisers going back nearly two years.
In any case, Coen's thesis is that the advertising recovery is finally underway, although spotty in some media. He said he expects the recovery to continue for the rest of this decade and possibly beyond, "if similar recovery patterns of the past are repeated to any degree."
"Much of the boom in ad spending during the last years of the twentieth century was due to the Internet and overly enthusiastic high technology expectations," Coen said in a statement. "Similar stimulations are not likely to appear to fuel excessive advertising growth in the near future. Nevertheless, with continued economic growth and spreading business and consumer confidence, there are more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic about the near term outlook for the advertising industry."
Two weeks ago, Zenith expressed some optimism with the ad industry as well. The media shop revised its outlook for U.S. ad spend growth upward, with particular enthusiasm for the growth of Internet advertising--it grew 21 percent globally in 2004, with more double-digit increases to come for the near future. However, while citing television's strength, Zenith said it expected TV's growth to peak around 2006, adding the prediction that the 2005-06 network upfront is likely to be "relatively soft."
2003 (Final) |
| 2004 (Final) |
|
| |
MEDIUMNEWSPAPERNational Local Total
MAGAZINES | Millions Of Dollars
$7,357 37,486 44,843
11,435
| % of Total
3.0 15.3 18.3
4.7 | Millions Of Dollars
$7,629 38,985 46,614
12,247
| % of Total
2.9 14.8 17.7
4.7 |
% Change
+3.7 +4.0 +3.9
+7.1 |
BROADCAST TVFour TV networks (3 TV Networks) Syndication* Spot (National) Spot ( Local) TOTAL
|
15,030 (13,105) 3,434 9,948 13,520 41,932 |
6.1 (5.3) 1.4 4.1 5.5 17.1 |
16,713 (14,691) 3,674 11,370 14,507 46,267 |
6.3 (5.6) 1.4 4.3 5.5 17.5 |
+11.2 (+12.1) +7.0 +14.3 +7.3 +10.3 |
CABLE TVCable Networks Spot ( local) Total |
13,954 4,860 18,814 |
5.7 2.0 7.6 |
16,424 5,103 21,527 |
6.2 2.0 8.2 |
+17.7 +5.0 +14.4 |
RADIONetwork Spot ( National) Spot ( local) Total |
798 3,540 14,762 19,100 |
0.3 1.5 6.0 7.8 |
836 3,540 15,205 19,581 |
0.3 1.3 5.8 7.4 |
+4.7 +0.0 3.0 +2.5 |
YELLOW PAGESNational Local TOTAL |
2,114 11,782 13,896 |
0.9 4.8 5.7 |
2,110 11,892 14,002 |
0.8 4.5 5.3 |
-0.1 +0.9 +0.8 |
DIRECT MAIL | 48,370 | 19.7 | 52,191 | 19.8 | +7.9 |
BUSINESS PAPERS
| 4,004 | 1.6 | 4,072 | 1.5 | +1.7 |
OUT OF HOME National Local Total |
2,298 3,145 5,443 |
0.9 1.3 2.2
|
2,530 3,240 5,770 |
1.0 1.2 2.2
|
+10.1 +3.0 +6.0 |
INTERNET | 5,650 | 2.3 | 6,853 | 2.6 | +21.3 |
MISCELLANEOUS National Local Total |
24,550 7,440 31,990 |
10.0 3.0 13.0 |
26,907 7,738 34,645 |
10.2 2.9 13.1 |
+9.6 +4.0 +8.3 |
National Total Local Total GRAND TOTAL | 152,482 92,995 245,477 | 62.1 37.9 100.0 | 167,096 96,670 263,766 | 63.4 36.6 100.0 | +9.6 +4.0 +7.4
|
Includes UPN, WB and Pax
Source: Robert J. Coen, Universal McCann