Coen Revises Nets' Share Of Spending Upward, Ad Recovery Continues

In issuing his final word on media spending for 2004, veteran ad spend forecaster Bob Coen found that the four broadcast networks gained more than he previously projected.

When Coen--the senior vice president and director for forecasting at Universal McCann--issued his last forecast in early December, he projected that the four broadcast nets would be up 9.5 percent over 2003's figures, with $16.4 billion. He has now revised that figure to be $16.7 billion, which will actually be an 11.2 percent rise in ad dollars for the major broadcasters.

Coen made similar slight adjustments to his final tally of 2004's media expenditures.

The final U.S. ad spending in all media totaled $263.766 billion in 2004--up 7.4 percent from $245.477 billion in 2003, he said. In December 2004, Coen estimated that 2004 spending would be up 7.4 percent to $263,699 billion. Spending growth by national advertisers grew by 9.6 percent. Previously, he predicted that national marketers would spend 8.9 percent more than in 2003, with a total of $165.9 billion--the final number is $167 billion.

advertisement

advertisement

Advertising spending by the smaller local marketers increased at the much more modest pace of only 4.0% last year, although Coen had earlier warned of cutbacks by these advertisers going back nearly two years.

In any case, Coen's thesis is that the advertising recovery is finally underway, although spotty in some media. He said he expects the recovery to continue for the rest of this decade and possibly beyond, "if similar recovery patterns of the past are repeated to any degree."

"Much of the boom in ad spending during the last years of the twentieth century was due to the Internet and overly enthusiastic high technology expectations," Coen said in a statement. "Similar stimulations are not likely to appear to fuel excessive advertising growth in the near future. Nevertheless, with continued economic growth and spreading business and consumer confidence, there are more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic about the near term outlook for the advertising industry."

Two weeks ago, Zenith expressed some optimism with the ad industry as well. The media shop revised its outlook for U.S. ad spend growth upward, with particular enthusiasm for the growth of Internet advertising--it grew 21 percent globally in 2004, with more double-digit increases to come for the near future. However, while citing television's strength, Zenith said it expected TV's growth to peak around 2006, adding the prediction that the 2005-06 network upfront is likely to be "relatively soft."

 

2003

(Final)

 

2004

(Final)

 

 

 

MEDIUM

NEWSPAPER

National

Local

Total

 

MAGAZINES

Millions

Of Dollars

 

$7,357

37,486

44,843

 

11,435

 

% of

Total

 

  3.0

15.3

18.3

         

          4.7

Millions

Of Dollars

 

$7,629

38,985

46,614

 

12,247

 

% of

Total

 

  2.9

14.8

17.7

         

          4.7

 

% Change

 

+3.7

+4.0

+3.9

 

+7.1

BROADCAST TV

Four TV networks

(3 TV Networks)

Syndication*

Spot (National)

Spot ( Local)

TOTAL

 

 

15,030

(13,105)

  3,434

  9,948

13,520

41,932

 

6.1

(5.3)

1.4

4.1

5.5

        17.1

 

16,713

(14,691)

  3,674

  11,370

14,507

46,267

 

6.3

(5.6)

1.4

4.3

5.5

        17.5

 

+11.2

(+12.1)

 +7.0

 +14.3

  +7.3

+10.3

CABLE TV

Cable Networks

Spot ( local)

Total

 

13,954

  4,860

18,814

 

5.7

2.0

7.6

 

16,424

  5,103

21,527

 

6.2

2.0

8.2

 

+17.7

+5.0

+14.4

RADIO

Network

Spot ( National)

Spot ( local)

Total

 

     798

  3,540

14,762

19,100

 

0.3

1.5

6.0

7.8

 

     836

  3,540

15,205

19,581

 

0.3

1.3

5.8

7.4

 

+4.7

         +0.0

3.0   

+2.5

YELLOW PAGES

National

Local

TOTAL

 

  2,114

11,782

13,896

 

0.9

4.8

5.7

 

  2,110

11,892

14,002

 

0.8

4.5

5.3

 

-0.1

+0.9

+0.8

DIRECT MAIL

48,370

19.7

52,191

19.8

+7.9

BUSINESS PAPERS

 

4,004

1.6

4,072

1.5

+1.7

OUT OF HOME

National

Local

Total

 

2,298

3,145

5,443

 

0.9

1.3

2.2

 

 

2,530

3,240

5,770

 

1.0

1.2

2.2

 

 

+10.1

  +3.0

  +6.0

INTERNET

5,650

2.3

6,853

2.6

+21.3

MISCELLANEOUS

National

Local

Total

 

24,550

  7,440

31,990

 

10.0

  3.0

13.0

 

26,907

  7,738

34,645

 

10.2

  2.9

13.1

 

+9.6

+4.0

+8.3

National Total

Local Total

GRAND TOTAL

152,482

  92,995

245,477

62.1

37.9

       100.0

167,096

  96,670

263,766

63.4

36.6

       100.0

+9.6

+4.0

+7.4

 

Includes UPN, WB and Pax

Source:  Robert J. Coen, Universal McCann
Next story loading loading..