• by Wayne Friedman , March 13, 2017

For many TV industry analysts, it seems an easy projection: The new Trump Administration will mean less regulation for the TV businesses -- particularly for TV station groups, which could mean high merger activity.

But Barclays Capital says don't be too sure.

One of the main points of contention is lifting the cap on the number of TV stations one company can own -- now at 39% of U.S. TV homes.

“Lifting broadcast caps [are] not easy,” writes media analyst Kannan Venkateshwar. “Broadcast ownership rules have been reviewed many times at the Supreme Court, circuit courts and Congress. Even the Republican-led FCC, while raising the limits in early 2000s, recognized the need to maintain a limit on ownership.”

Secondly, it may not be the Federal Communications Commission deciding on whether to lift that cap. “Because the 39% cap was put in place by Congress, there is a school of thought that argues that only Congress can modify this cap.”

One key area acquiring TV station companies are eyeing is the so-called “UHF TV station discount.” Barclays said. However, it is “unlikely to be reinstituted... If ownership caps are lifted, it is tough to see UHF discounts being eliminated, which would limit the size of deals that can happen.”

In addition, the report says “local ownership rule changes could take time ... The FCC may need to defend itself against previous precedents, as a result of which, it may need to approach this issue with more caution.”

Barclays notes that since the conclusion of the elections late last year, local broadcasting stocks have been up 44%.