• by Erik Sass  @eriksass1, September 2, 2005

Media shop Initiative Media is promoting a new analytic tool that it says will assess online buzz for the new fall TV lineup. The new tool, dubbed PropheSEE, allows users to analyze comments in the blogosphere about various TV shows.

From May to July, PropheSEE combed through 15 million blogs and online chat groups to uncover attitudes toward plot developments, loyalty or dislike for particular characters, and other opinions. Among other findings, the project revealed that Martha Stewart, Chris Rock and Jennifer Love Hewitt are among the most discussed celebrities starring in upcoming shows.

Stacey Lynn Koerner, executive vice president and director of global research integration at Initiative, said that PropheSEE relied on statistical programs to "sift through many combinations of words and draw conclusions about their proximity and usage." The system, she said, "allows us to scientifically analyze feelings, emotions, opinions, and contentions. That's how you get at sentiment."

If PropheSEE proves effective, it would be a significant addition to the analytic toolbox that media strategists use when trying to divine the will of the elusive viewing audience. Indeed, Koerner pointed to areas where PropheSEE-like tools might well replace standard industry practices.

"In the past, we would have had to do ethnographic research or focus group research to get at this kind of information," Koerner recalled. "And in any of that, there's any number of biases that can hurt your data--in the way you ask the question, or just the fact that you're in the room," she said, adding: "[PropheSEE] allows us to look at blogs and chat rooms and distill some really meaningful conclusions, while avoiding those biases."

By understanding the relationship between audiences and TV programs, Initiative hopes to create a less intrusive strategy for ad deployment. "We encourage our clients not to disrupt [the viewing] experience, but enable it. So you sponsor online gaming content, or you have adjacent interviews with relevant stars of those shows--things like that," Koerner continued.

But not all media buyers are enthusiastic about the predictive value of tools such as PropheSEE. "There are a lot of factors that go into the success of a TV show," Brad Adgate, senior vice president and director of research for Horizon Media, warned. "A lot of people will watch the first episode, but then the audience dwindles rapidly. Down the road, there are many other variables that are going to influence a show's actual success."